Research On Combination Model Of Commodity Grain Logistics Demand Forecast In Shanxi Province

My country is a large agricultural country,and agriculture is related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood,and is the pillar industry of the national economy.With the continuous development of the economy and the acceleration of regional economic integration,commodity grain logistics is directly related to the country’s economy,security and people’s livelihood.Whether the grain logistics is smooth or not directly affects the market supply and price stability of agricultural products,and also determines the efficiency and profit of the grain supply chain,which is of great significance for ensuring national food security,increasing farmers’ income,and promoting rural economic development.Reducing the cost of commodity grain logistics and formulating high-quality logistics planning have become urgent problems to be solved to promote the rapid,stable and sustainable development of the regional economy.To do a good job in the forecasting of commodity grain logistics demand,we can rationally arrange production planning and inventory management according to the forecast results to meet market demand,improve production efficiency and profits,and obtain better benefits and efficiency in the commodity grain supply chain.This thesis takes commodity grain as the research object,and studies the logistics demand forecast of commodity grain in Taiyuan City,Shanxi Province.From the aspects of regional development level,industrial structure level,market supply and demand factors,etc.,10 main factors that affect the logistics demand of commodity grain in Taiyuan,such as the total resident population of the region,the total output of commodity grain in the region,and the total manufacturing volume of the primary industry,are selected.The data of relevant influencing factors in the past two decades were collected,and the gray correlation degree was used to analyze the correlation between the demand for commodity grain and the influencing factors,and a demand forecasting index system was constructed.The BP neural network model,GM(1,1)-BP gray neural network forecasting model,and GA-BP genetic neural network combination model were respectively established,and the data were brought in for comparative analysis.The logistics demand is forecasted and the forecasted results are compared with the actual data,and the forecasting effect of the GA-BP neural network combination model is more accurate and effective.Through the comparison of the four models and the empirical analysis of the demand forecast of commodity grain logistics in Taiyuan City,it is obtained that the GA-BP genetic neural network combination model has the highest accuracy and the smallest error.Afterwards,through the forecast of commodity grain logistics demand in Taiyuan City,Shanxi Province and the analysis of its development status,and based on the forecast results,from the perspective of optimizing the management mode of logistics links and strengthening the logistics infrastructure,a series of suggestions on the development of commodity grain logistics in Shanxi Province were put forward.