A Study Of Bitcoin’s Investment Logic: Value Investment Or Speculative Behavior?

Bitcoin has become an increasingly popular financial instrument in the international investment market in recent years.As a virtual currency,Bitcoin differs significantly from traditional investment instruments in that it lacks commodity value and is not backed by third-party credit,making it necessary for investors to reconstruct the investment logic of Bitcoin as a basis for their investment decisions.Considering the unique nature of bitcoin as a digital currency,this paper constructs 2 investment logics,i.e.value investment and speculative behavior,on the basis of reference to many traditional investment logic theories such as commodities,precious metals and stocks in traditional investment markets.According to the nature of bitcoin,the logic of value investment is divided into commodity logic,currency logic and hedging logic.The paper constructs the theoretical system of bitcoin investment logic,and constructs the indicator system of bitcoin value investment and speculative behavior according to the theoretical framework:the indicator system built around the value investment logic includes the hashing law to describe the commodity properties,the dollar index to measure the monetary properties,the panic index to measure the hedging properties,the TED spread,the US Treasury spread and the US Treasury CDS spread.The indicator system of speculative behavior includes the Wikipedia search index,the The trading volume growth rate and the value investment index system return to the residual,thus forming the analysis framework of bitcoin investment logic in theory.To further examine the value investment and speculative behaviour in the Bitcoin market,this paper uses cointegration tests and VAR models to investigate the two main types of logic in the Bitcoin market,and examines the sudden change in the Bitcoin market investment logic through event shocks.In addition,this paper examines the impact of policy signals from sovereign countries on the Bitcoin investment market logic by combining the results of the value investment and speculative logic tests with the results of the mutation point tests and by selecting policy factors for the event study.Through the above theoretical and empirical research on bitcoin investment logic,the following results were found:the commodity and risk aversion attributes support the value investment logic of bitcoin,and the speculative logic relies mainly on the momentum effect.Bitcoin does not have a monetary function and its monetary properties are not recognised by the market.Bitcoin investment logic is not static and can change significantly in response to event shocks.Sovereign country policy factors have a significant impact on bitcoin investment logic,with negative policy signals reducing market speculation.Bitcoin has sparked a wave of digital currencies around the world in recent years.Designed by its creator Satoshi Nakamoto to become a supranational sovereign currency,and with Wall Street including its bitcoin in its pool of asset allocation instruments,bitcoin has evolved financial properties in the market beyond the engineering expectations of its designers,and new logics may develop in the future.Investment logic is the fulcrum of financial decision making,and the study of Bitcoin’s investment logic is conducive to enhancing investor education in the Bitcoin market,as well as improving the theoretical system of Bitcoin as an emerging marker and promoting Bitcoin’s vigorous life in the global investment market.