A Study On The Influence Of International Crude Oil Futures Price Changes On The Spot Price Of Downstream Chemical Products And Its Path

Crude oil is the "blood of industry",as the main chemical raw material and important strategic reserves,its price affects the development of the world economy.As the world’s largest crude oil importer,China is very sensitive to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices,considering the complex industrial chain involved in crude oil,changes in international oil prices will affect all aspects of China’s economy.In the current situation that China needs to stabilize the overall economic market,how to respond correctly to the continuous changes in international oil prices in a timely manner,so as to reduce the economic shocks caused by the shock,is an important issue.Therefore,it is of certain significance to study the impact of international crude oil futures prices on the spot prices of downstream chemical products.This paper explains the definition of the petrochemical industry chain and explains the relationship between crude oil and some downstream chemical products.It also analyzes the impact of international crude oil futures prices on the spot prices of downstream chemical products from the perspectives of cost promotion and futures market.From the perspective of cost-driven price transmission theory,crude oil as the upstream raw material of downstream chemical products,its price change will directly affect the production cost of downstream chemical products,thereby affecting its spot price;From the perspective of price transmission in the futures market,international crude oil futures will affect their spot prices by affecting the futures prices of downstream chemical products and their futures and spot spreads.On the basis of theoretical analysis,four representative downstream chemical products are selected as explanatory variables,and the price change of international crude oil is measured by BRENT crude oil futures price yield,and empirical analysis is carried out in combination with GARCH(1,1)model.The empirical results show that: first,the change of BRENT crude oil futures price will have a positive impact on the spot price of downstream chemical products;Second: the impact of BRENT crude oil futures price changes is nonlinear,and when the price of BRENT crude oil futures changes greatly,its impact on the spot price of downstream chemical products is greater;Third: the price transmission of international crude oil futures is dynamic,and the impact is different in different periods.After the introduction of the futures market,empirical analysis was carried out,and a new conclusion was drawn: the international crude oil futures price will affect the spot price of downstream chemical products by affecting the futures price of its downstream chemical products;The international crude oil futures price will affect the spot price of downstream chemical products by affecting the futures and spot spreads,but this impact will vary greatly from product to product.Based on theoretical and empirical results,this paper gives countermeasures and suggestions for three subjects.First: investors should pay attention to the changes in international crude oil prices in a timely manner and reasonably adjust their asset allocation.Second: industry producers should clarify their own positioning and adjust production strategies;And actively participate in the international crude oil futures market and other commodity futures market.Third: government departments should fundamentally reduce the dependence of China’s crude oil on foreign countries;Use financial means,especially the hedging function of the futures market,to avoid the risks caused by the sharp fluctuation of international oil prices.