| High-quality development is the primary task of comprehensively building a socialist modern country.The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis was a typical economic event in history with "small causes and great effects",and it was also a typical event in economic and financial history where the default of household debt triggered a global economic recession.The high level of household debt and the overall slowdown in economic growth are prominent macroeconomic phenomena in China.The household leverage ratio(household debt/GDP)has increased from 18.8% in the first quarter of 2007 to 61.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022.As of the end of 2022,the total amount of household loans in China has reached 74,939.672 billion yuan.From a city perspective,as of the end of 2020,the per capita loan amount of the household sector was as high as 170,666 yuan,while the lowest was only5,619 yuan.Therefore,it can be seen that the total amount of household loans is large,and there is a significant difference in household loans among urban residents,indicating that China has a structural debt problem.Against the backdrop of preventing and resolving China’s systemic financial risks,the issue of household debt risk caused by the rise in household debt has attracted widespread attention,and it is imperative to reduce household debt risk.Therefore,in the context of regional heterogeneity,this article explores the impact of household debt risk on China’s economic high-quality development and how to conduct policy regulation.Firstly,to study the impact of regional household debt risk on the high-quality development of the economy in China,this article selects panel data from 258 cities from2015 to 2020.Based on measuring the level of household debt risk and high-quality economic development in the regions,the article empirically analyzes the impact of regional household debt risk on high-quality economic development and deeply analyzes the impact mechanism of industrial upgrading and income inequality.The empirical results show that,from a linear perspective,regional household debt risk inhibits high-quality economic development;from a nonlinear perspective,the impact of regional household debt risk on high-quality economic development has a "inverted U" relationship,and the threshold for household debt risk level is61.4%.Through quantile regression analysis,it is found that the inhibitory effect of regional household debt risk on urban high-quality economic development is more pronounced in cities with higher levels of economic development,and the negative impact of regional household debt risk is smaller.Through the analysis of the impact mechanism,it is found that regional household debt risk indirectly affects high-quality economic development by inhibiting industrial upgrading,and income inequality amplifies its inhibitory effect on highquality economic development.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of household debt risk on high-quality economic development is more pronounced in non-firsttier cities.Secondly,in order to study how to prevent and resolve the debt risk of China’s regional residents,this article first establishes machine learning models such as random forest,GBDT,XGBoost,and Light GBM to explore the influencing factors of the debt risk of China’s residents.The research results show that the XGBoost model has the smallest RMSE and the best effect.Among the 25 influencing factors,the main factors are housing prices,human capital level,deposit-to-loan ratio of the resident sector,degree of common prosperity,level of network infrastructure,consumption level,government intervention,and income inequality.The importance of these influencing factors is 58.5%,9.9%,8.5%,7%,3%,2.7%,2.3%,and1.6%,respectively.After determining that housing prices are the main factor affecting the debt risk of the resident sector,a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model is constructed,which includes patient households,impatient households,manufacturers,commercial banks,real estate departments,and government departments.The effects of monetary policy,fiscal policy,and macro-prudential policy on the debt risk of the resident sector in different regions are discussed.The empirical results show that when the interest rate is raised or personal income tax is reduced,the control effect of the debt risk of the resident sector in first-tier cities is better than that in non-first-tier cities;when the loan-to-value ratio(LTV)is reduced,the control effect of the debt risk of the resident sector in non-first-tier cities is better than that in first-tier cities.When the output loss degree is set to 0.1571,macroprudential policy has the best control effect on the debt risk of the resident sector,and the control effect in first-tier cities is better than that in non-first-tier cities.Based on the multiplier effect quantification analysis,both monetary policy and macro-prudential policy are effective tools to prevent and resolve the debt risk of the regional resident sector.Under the same output loss,the inhibitory effect of macro-prudential policy on the debt risk of the regional resident sector is more obvious.In addition,flexible and targeted selection should be made according to the actual situation in different regions.In areas where housing prices are rising rapidly,macro-prudential policy should be the main control method,while in areas where housing prices are relatively moderate,monetary policy should be the main control method.Finally,based on the research conclusions of this article,the following policy recommendations are proposed: government departments should strengthen the monitoring of debt risks of regional resident sectors,improve the prevention mechanism of debt risks of regional resident sectors;innovate the ideas and methods of macroeconomic regulation,promote coordination and cooperation between different policies;implement targeted control policies according to local conditions to promote high-quality development of regional economy.In addition,the government should also strengthen financial literacy education for residents,improve their debt awareness and risk awareness,guide them to make rational consumption and investment decisions.At the same time,the government should strengthen the supervision of financial institutions,prevent risks in their lending business,and protect the legitimate rights and interests of residents.Finally,the government should actively guide investors to focus on long-term investment value and promote the healthy,stable,and sustainable development of the financial market. |
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