Farmers’ Production Decisions Considering Capital Constraints Under The Background Of Contract Agriculture

China has always attached great importance to the "three rural" issues,and through a series of policies to promote the stable growth of agricultural output,improve the income of farmers.But there are still many problems in the supply chain of agricultural products.The output of agricultural products is uncertain and seasonal due to season,weather,pests and diseases,production mode,production technology and other factors.At the same time,the market demand is affected by a variety of external factors,and there are also uncertainties.All these factors increase the difficulty of agricultural supply chain management.Therefore,on the one hand,the government continues to promote contract agriculture and other modes of production and marketing to strengthen the connection between supply and demand;On the other hand,policy subsidies and other ways to promote the use of standardized greenhouse facilities to promote the stable annual output of agricultural products.But because farmers often have funds limit,blind and the choice of the company to sign the contract or order agriculture production mode(outdoor planting or greenhouse planting)creates its own losses,so research how to select the mode of production and allocate funds,reasonably confirm the leasing or self-built greenhouse area,when selecting order agriculture,has a certain practical significance.This paper describes the uncertainty of production and demand in the form of random production and demand,and then studies the agricultural supply chain composed of a farmer with capital restriction and a company without capital restriction under the model of order agriculture.Among them,the company buys agricultural products from farmers and sells them to end consumers.In this paper,the supply chain decision models of traditional agriculture with only open air or only greenhouse production,contract agriculture with only open air or greenhouse production,and contract agriculture with both open air and greenhouse production are constructed respectively,and the optimal decision of farmers and companies with maximum expected profits under different conditions is obtained.Finally,through numerical analysis,the influence of the change of each parameter on the decisionmaking of farmers and companies is studied.The results show that :(1)this paper obtains the quantitative capital allocation strategies of farmers with capital constraints in two production modes under the contract-farming mode.(2)Farmers’ initial production capital determines their maximum planting amount.When the maximum planting amount is less than the company’s seasonal or off-seasonal order amount,traditional agriculture is preferred;When it is not less than the company’s seasonal or antiseasonal order volume,contract-farming can be selected to bring stable profits;When the maximum planting quantity can meet the company’s seasonal and off-seasonal orders at the same time,open-air planting and greenhouse planting can be adopted under the contractfarming mode to improve profits,and sufficient funds are reserved for greenhouse planting.(3)For the company,contract-farming can reduce the risk of shortage of agricultural products due to farmers’ low planting decisions.(4)Reducing the liquidated damages,narrowing the interval length of yield rate and reducing the uncertainty of yield rate can improve farmers’ willingness to choose contract-farming.(5)The smaller the interval length of output rate is,the smaller the uncertainty of output is.The difference of farmers’ profit between contract-farming mode and traditional agriculture mode increases first and then decreases.(6)In the case of high greenhouse planting cost,farmers will give up off-season planting and production,which makes the market demand in the off-season period unable to meet,and is not conducive to the docking of production and marketing in the off-season period.