| In recent years,the "sharp rise and fall" of the stock market have appeared repeatedly in the upper layer of the capital market,which is not only detrimental to the stable development of the stock market,but also seriously damages the vital interests of investors.Therefore,it is very important to study the mechanism of the risk of of share price collapse.Previous scholars’ research on the risk of stock price collapse mostly focused on the behavior and characteristics of the managers of listed companies.This study takes the expected performance deficit as the starting point to study the economic consequences of the expected performance deficit the risk of stock price collapse.First of all,in order to study the relationship between expected performance deficit and stock price collapse risk,this study constructs panel data of A-share public enterprises from 2000 to 2020,and comprehensively examines the mechanism of its effect on the relationship between expected performance deficit and stock price collapse risk from from the perspective of internal governance factors and external governance factors,the variables of internal control quality and product market competition are selected respectively.Secondly,this paper tests the robustness of the empirical regression results obtained by adding macro control variables,fixed effect models and instrumental variables to test the results;In addition,this paper also discusses the relationship between expected performance deficit and stock price collapse risk when actual performance is slightly lower than expected performance.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions to reduce the stock price crash risk of A-share public enterprises in the future and contribute to maintaining the order of the capital market.The research results of this article indicate that:(1)there is a significant positive correlation between the risk of stock price collapse and the expected performance deficit.The larger the expected performance deficit,the greater the likelihood of a listed company experiencing stock price collapse in the future;(2)The quality of internal control negatively regulates the positive correlation between the expected performance deficit and the risk of stock price crash,that is,high-quality internal control can play a supervisory role in the management of listed companies,reduce the corrupt behavior and moral hazard of the management,improve the transparency of internal and external information of listed companies,which reduces the risk of stock price crash in the future of listed companies;(3)The product market competition positively regulates the positive correlation between the expected performance deficit and the stock price crash risk,that is,fierce product market competition will generate competitive pressure,which forces the management to improve the information transparency between the internal and external investors of listed companies,reduce the opportunism behavior of managers and reduce moral hazard,and establish a good corporate image,This reduces the risk of future stock price crashes for listed companies.In addition,this article uses the method of sub sample regression to regress the sub samples,and the results show that when the gap between actual performance and expected performance is very small,the expected performance deficit is not related to the risk of stock price collapse.Finally,based on the research mechanism,this article believes that reducing the operational risks of listed companies should enhance the professional ethics of managers,establish a sound internal governance system,and relevant departments should improve laws and regulations to increase the cost of illegal activities.At the same time,the mass media should play a supervisory role. |
