| If consumers of experience-oriented products do not have product quality information after consumption experience,they have more uncertainty in the evaluation of consumption utility,so they make their own consumption decisions more dependent on the consumption behavior of others.In the past,consumers have influenced each other’s consumption choices through word of mouth.However,with the development of Internet technology,online word-of-mouth of goods has become ubiquitous.Consumers can prejudge the quality and consumption effect of goods at a very low cost through the process of social learning.In the consumption process of movies,a typical experience-based product,consumers use online word-of-mouth as a tool for social learning.This study aims to explore the decision-making mechanism of consumers for experience-based products through this process,so as to provide a basis for theoretical analysis of consumer decision-making behavior.Based on the existing research results such as the influencing factors of box office and the mechanism of word-of-mouth,this study,from the perspective of social learning,divides the first week of film screening as the period of introduction of consumption and the subsequent weeks of film screening as the period of mass consumption according to the process of word-of-mouth formation and accumulation.According to the different consumption period,the leading factors affecting consumer decision are different: In the consumption introduction period,because consumers do not have the product quality signal,they can only passively accept the quality signal brought by the manufacturer’s market-oriented publicity means.Therefore,consumers are influenced by the manufacturer’s publicity to make the film consumption decision in this period.At the same time,the consumers who have completed the consumption behavior in the consumption introduction period form a certain amount of initial movie word-of-mouth,and the formation and dissemination of word-of-mouth is a tool for other consumers to carry out social learning,which plays an important role in the mass consumption period.After the film screening enters the mass consumption period,consumers will follow the consumers in the introduction period to make movie-watching decisions,which means they will be affected by the herd effect.However,the effect of herd behavior changes due to social learning of rational consumers,and the ultimate result,the box office,also changes.According to the theoretical framework and research hypothesis,the research further establishes the empirical analysis thinking from three aspects.Simple ols regression was used to analyze whether the manufacturer’s product quality signals were conveyed to consumers as desired during the consumption introduction period,and ultimately reflected in the improvement of box office.The following of consumers is defined by the spillover of the first week’s box office to the subsequent box office.In the empirical analysis,the market competition variable is introduced as the instrumental variable to investigate the spillover of the first week’s box office to the subsequent box office,and therefore the existence of the herd effect is judged.Based on the expected difference theory,the expected difference model is constructed,and the difference between the manufacturer’s expectation of the market and the real market reaction is taken as the impact to analyze the impact on the change trend of the box office,so as to define the existence of the social learning effect and analyze the change of the social learning process on the consumption following behavior,which leads to the change of the box office.The results of this paper show that:(1)The marketization means of manufacturers are effective in improving the coverage of publicity and promoting consumers’ efforts to watch movies and buy tickets during the movie consumption introduction period.But the effectiveness of this effort changes in the second period.(2)Once formed,word-of-mouth information will become an important reference for consumers to make consumption decisions.Good word-of-mouth will promote the increase of movie box office,and this effect is more obvious for low word-of-mouth box office.(3)The action mechanism of word-of-mouth on box office is social learning effect.Due to the publicity of film manufacturers,consumers will form psychological expectations on the judgment of product quality and consumption utility.However,the process of social learning will change consumers’ expectations and eventually lead to the change of the downward trend of movie box office in the whole life cycle.Good word-of-mouth slows down the downward trend of box office,while bad word-of-mouth increases it.Therefore,word-of-mouth is the decisive factor to determine the performance of film products.Based on the above research results,this paper proposes that manufacturers of experience-based consumer products such as movies should not pay attention to publicity and ignore product quality.No matter how hard to use the publicity means,it can’t change the fact that consumers are rational.Once the word of mouth is formed,it will be observed by consumers and influence their consumption decisions.Word-of-mouth means the quality of products.Only the products have a good quality can the word-of-mouth be improved and the product quality signal be transmitted to consumers.Only by "improving the quality" can the film industry "enhance the efficiency".Only by attaching importance to product quality and meeting the real needs of consumers can the manufacturers of experience-oriented products truly impress consumers... |