Evaluating The Effectiveness Of The Unconventional Macro Economic Regulation Policy

Consumption is the way to observing economic operation and the key link connecting production,circulation and distribution.With the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020,China’s economy was seriously affected,the domestic economy was sluggish,and residents’ consumption capacity was inadequate.In this regard,the government has adopted a policy of issuing consumption vouchers,with the government taking the lead,enterprises giving profits,and government and enterprise linkage,using e-commerce platforms to benefit residents,so as to promote residents’ consumption and restore the economy.At present,the research on the effectiveness of government consumption vouchers in China is still in its infancy,and there are few empirical papers,and they focus on the static economic effects and short-term economic effects of consumption voucher policies.This paper uses 60 issues of monthly data from 267 cities to study the static and dynamic economic effects of consumption voucher policies by using bidirectional fixed-effect model and local projection method,and conducts multi-angle research on the effectiveness of government consumption voucher policies from the perspectives of aging degree,digital financial inclusion and geographical region in different cities,and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions,so as to enrich the research on consumption voucher policies.The main conclusions of this paper include: First,as an unconventional fiscal policy to boost the economy,government consumption vouchers give full play to their multiplier effect,and the consumption-pull ratio is 1:12.706,that is,every 1 yuan of government consumption coupons can leverage residents’ consumption by about12.706 yuan on average,which will play a significant role in promoting household consumption,which can drive household consumption and help the economy recover.Second,the degree of urban aging will affect the stimulating effect of consumption vouchers,and in areas with a high degree of digital financial inclusion,the faster the response of household consumption to the policy,the better the issuance effect of the consumption voucher policy.Third,in areas with different degrees of digital financial inclusion,the effectiveness of government consumption vouchers is different,and in areas with a high degree of digital financial inclusion,the government consumption voucher policy is more efficient in promoting consumption,and household consumption responds faster to the consumption voucher policy,and the promotion effect is more stable.Fourth,the promotion effect of consumption policy on household consumption has regional heterogeneity,in the northeast region,the promotion effect of government consumption voucher policy is strong,in the eastern region,the promotion effect of government consumption voucher policy is the smallest.