Research On China’s Export Potential For Digital Services Trade To RCEP Countries

With the rapid development of the Internet and digital economy,the form and content of trade has changed significantly.The development of digital trade has become an important factor affecting the global economy and value chain.Globally,digital technologies such as big data,cloud computing and artificial intelligence are gradually being integrated into traditional trade in services,becoming an important factor driving the trade efficiency of countries.In this context,this paper takes China’s digital service trade exports to RCEP member countries as the main object of study.Based on the definition of relevant theories and concepts,it analyzes the scale and export structure of China’s digital service trade exports to RCEP member countries,and provides an in-depth analysis of the current situation of China’s digital service trade exports and the trade competitiveness and complementarity of digital service trade of RCEP countries in the global context.Finally,to provide an in-depth analysis of China’s exports of digital services to RCEP member countries,and the competitiveness and complementarity of digital services trade among RCEP countries globally.Finally,in order to analyze the factors influencing China’s digital services trade exports to RCEP member countries and its trade potential,a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model is applied to export data from 2005 to 2019 to analyze the export efficiency and potential of China’s digital services trade,and relevant policy recommendations are made based on the results.The analysis of the relevant data reveals that: in terms of export scale,China’s exports are increasing year by year,but there is a large trade deficit;by country,exports to Japan,Singapore and South Korea dominate,exceeding 70% of the total exports.In terms of export structure,China’s exports are mainly dominated by other business services and ICT services.In terms of competitiveness and complementarity,China has strong competitiveness in ICT services as well as other business services,but China’s trade complementarity with other RCEP members is not too strong.From the results of the stochastic frontier gravity model,it can be seen that: GDP growth and the availability of a common language between the two countries will promote the growth of China’s digital services trade exports,and the population size and distance factors are hindering factors for digital services trade exports;in the inefficiency model,institutional distance and cultural distance are conducive to export efficiency,and fixed broadband and telephone subscriptions,logistics level,and intellectual property protection are related to trade inefficiency negatively related.In 2019,the average efficiency of China’s digital service trade exports with 10 countries is 0.709,indicating that there is still much room for progress in China’s digital service trade exports,but the room for export expansion is very limited,where the top three countries in terms of export trade potential are Japan,Singapore and South Korea,and there is more room for untapped trade volume in New Zealand and Australia.To address the problems in the development of China’s digital services trade,we should focus on improving three aspects: export structure,infrastructure development and cultural exchange,and explore new ways for the development of China’s digital services trade,so as to enhance the international competitiveness of China’s digital services trade.