Research On Purchasing Cost Prediction Of Manufacturing Enterprises From The Perspective Of Supply Chain Management

With the deepening of economic globalization,enterprises are beginning to face three-dimensional competition from all over the world.If manufacturing enterprises want to obtain an ideal competitive position in the competition,they must carry out all-round adjustment and innovation from production technology to management system.The supply chain is a dynamic system.The product demand and market are changing.The purchase and sales plans of enterprises and the business strategies of competitors are also changing at any time.If the procurement cost of enterprises can be scientifically and accurately predicted,it will be very helpful to the effective management of the procurement cost of enterprises and improve the market competitiveness.Under the above background,this paper comprehensively uses literature,case,model,qualitative and quantitative research methods,and takes manufacturing enterprise A company as the case study object to predict its procurement cost management from the perspective of supply chain management.This paper first introduces the research background and relevant theories of the subject,and then analyzes the current situation of procurement cost and procurement cost management of Company A in depth.The procurement management activities of Company A’s supply chain are divided into four stages: procurement planning,supplier selection and management,procurement implementation and inventory management.Combined with the actual business activities of Company A and the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,a total of 15 indicators such as the number of levels of procurement approval process,average monthly purchase batches,average duration of procurement authorization were selected as the variables of the BP neural network models to construct the BP neural network model,and the superiority of the BP neural network model was analyzed from the theoretical level.On this basis,this paper takes several historical supply chain procurement cost data of Company A as training data and trains the BP neural network model with Adam optimization algorithm to obtain the predicted value of supply chain procurement cost,and evaluates the error between the model and the predicted value with some data,Finally,it is proved that the supply chain procurement cost prediction model of Company A constructed in this paper can provide scientific and effective management objectives for the supply chain procurement management activities of Company A in practice,and has important support value for the overall cost control and management strategy of Company A.Finally,suggestions are put forward to improve the level of supply chain procurement cost management from four aspects: procurement planning stage cost management,supplier selection stage cost management,procurement implementation stage cost management and inventory management stage cost management.After research,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,Company A has introduced the concept of procurement process management in the supply chain management,and has built a relatively complete supply chain system including upstream and downstream suppliers,which has the foundation to further improve the level of supply chain procurement management by applying modern management theories and management tools.Secondly,through the training and testing of the model,the results show that the cost forecasting model constructed in this paper has the application value of forecasting the supply chain procurement of Company A.Company A can apply the cost prediction model built in this paper to the supply chain procurement practice,set a relatively reasonable cost management objective for this supply chain procurement activity,and then carry out cost management and assessment.