Research On The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Commercial Bank Credit Supply

As China has entered the era of high-quality development,bank credit,as the main means of social financing,is of great significance for promoting the development of the real economy.As a bridge between the government and the real economy,commercial banks’ credit supply has an important impact on the development of the real economy.In recent years,the world is in a great change that has not happened in a hundred years,which also brings a lot of uncertainties.In order to cope with the changes in the international situation,we frequently adjust economic policies to maintain the healthy development of the national economy,which,to a certain extent,has led to an increase in the uncertainty of economic policies.Economic policy adjustments can affect the development of China’s real economy through various channels.Among them,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the credit supply of commercial banks is particularly worthy of our attention.Based on the panel data of 89 commercial banks in China from 2008 to 2021,this paper discusses the following issues: First,a benchmark model of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the credit supply of commercial banks is constructed from both sides of credit supply and demand,and the regulatory effectiveness of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the credit supply of commercial banks is analyzed using the two indicators of non-performing loan ratio and capital adequacy ratio.Finally,the selected sample banks are divided into state-owned commercial banks and non-state commercial banks for heterogeneity analysis.The results show that: first,the uncertainty of economic policy has a significant inhibitory effect on the credit supply of commercial banks;Second,the non-performing loan ratio plays an aggravating role in the impact,while the capital adequacy ratio plays a mitigating role in the impact;Thirdly,the credit supply of non-state commercial banks is more vulnerable to the uncertainty of economic policy.According to the research conclusions of this paper,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: First,the government should fully consider the impact of economic policies,adjust economic policies more prudently,maintain the stability,long-term effectiveness and openness of economic policies as much as possible,and improve the transparency and openness of economic policies.Second,the government should vigorously promote the construction of China’s multi-level capital market,expand financing channels,and reduce the dependence of enterprise financing on credit.Third,the central bank should pay close attention to the fluctuation of economic policy uncertainty,appropriately adjust the strength of monetary policy tools,and actively carry out window guidance and moral advice.Fourth,commercial banks should innovate their business structure and explore more profit growth points.Fifth,commercial banks should establish and improve risk prevention and control mechanisms to improve their ability to resist risks.