The Impact Of International Commodity Prices On China’s Producer Prices Under The Background Of U.S Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy

Since 2020,affected by the Fed’s quantitative easing policy and epidemic factors,international commodity prices have been rising,and the prices of major imported commodities have been rising,reaching the historical level since 2008.China is the largest demand country for primary products and has great dependence on bulk commodities of means of production.The state attaches great importance to the rise of bulk commodity prices.Under the influence of the epidemic,the mismatch between supply and demand of bulk commodities and the "quantitative easing" monetary policy launched by the United States,what trend the price of bulk commodities will maintain,whether it will have an impact on China’s economy,and whether China will be affected by imported inflation are all concerned by the management of national economic work and practitioners in all walks of life.Under the background of "quantitative easing",the price rise in the international commodity market has been rehearsed as early as 2008.Therefore,studying the impact of the global commodity price rise on China’s price level since 2008 is of great significance for how to look at the current domestic and international economic situation.This paper investigates the impact of international commodity prices on the price index and sub index represented by China’s PPI under the background of quantitative easing in the United States,selects the industrial producer price index PPI and sub index,selects the Reuters CRB spot price index,selects the added value of China’s industrial output,China’s nominal real exchange rate and China’s commodity price index as control variables,and establishes a VAR model,and then compare with molecular sample regression.This paper mainly investigates the channels affected by international commodity price fluctuations in China,as well as the transmission law of PPI and sub index affected by international commodity price shocks,and then compares the different impulse response characteristics during the two quantitative easing policies.With theoretical and empirical analysis,we have these conclusions.(1)In the context of quantitative easing,the impact of international commodity prices has a significant impact on China’s PPI: international commodity prices drive the rise of China’s domestic commodity prices,directly and indirectly causing cost pressure on China’s industrial enterprises;The rise in international commodity prices has increased the demand of China’s import enterprises for us dollars,put pressure on China’s exchange rate and further put upward pressure on the domestic PPI index.(2)The impact of international commodity prices on China’s PPI is transmitted from upstream to downstream along China’s industrial chain,but the transmission channel is not smooth,and there is an obvious attenuation in the transmission process from upstream to downstream.(3)Comparing the impact of international commodity prices on China’s PPI before and after the first quantitative easing policy,during the first fed quantitative easing policy,the rise of international commodity prices had a higher explanation for the rise of China’s PPI,and China’s PPI responded faster;Since 2016,China’s PPI has shown more stable characteristics due to the impact of international commodity prices.First,the response speed has slowed down,and second,the response degree has decreased;The explanation degree of international commodity prices for the change of China’s PPI decreases,and the explanation degree of the added value of domestic industrial output increases.Based on the empirical results,this paper gives some corresponding policy suggestions.1.China should pay attention to the impact of international commodity prices on China’s prices and establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism.2.Adhere to the optimization and reform of economic structure and optimize the mode of economic development.3.Strengthen the strategic reserve of strategic commodities.4.Promote the internationalization of RMB and the settlement of RMB in international bulk commodity trade.5.Pay attention to the survival and development of small and medium-sized enterprises and protect the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.6.Strengthen the construction of China’s futures market.The innovation of this paper lies in: firstly,from a longer-term perspective,this paper studies the generality of the impact of international commodity price fluctuations on China’s producer prices under the background of fed quantitative easing.Secondly,the multiple empirical analysis of producer price index and sub index can distinguish the different characteristics of PPI in different industries facing external cost impact,and then explore the transmission law of PPI.Finally,through the empirical analysis of sub samples,this paper compares the new characteristics of price response in the face of external shocks through the impact of international commodity price fluctuations on China’s PPI during the two quantitative easing policies.