Discussion On The Function Expansion Of Shanghai Composite Index

Stock price index is an important index of macro economy.Whether the compilation of stock price index is scientific and reasonable is directly related to whether the index can effectively play its function.With the rapid development of Chinese economy,Chinese gross domestic product(GDP)has increased from US $0.3trillion in 1990 to US $15.86 trillion in 2020.Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed from the initial "old eight shares" to the stock market with more than 2000 listed companies.The continuous development of the securities market puts forward higher requirements for the index function.The index functions of different indexes in the market have different emphases.As a whole market index,the Shanghai Composite Index has played the function of resource allocation and reflecting the operation of the capital market since its establishment,In the later stage,Shanghai stock exchange mainly focused on strengthening the ruler function,analytical function,investment function and trading function of Shanghai Composite Index.With the strengthening of the main index function of Shanghai Composite Index,its reflection and prediction function of macro economy is gradually weakening.Studies have shown that the securities market has the function of "economic barometer".The securities market is an important leading indicator of macro-economy.At the same time,the trend of macroeconomy also determines the long-term trend of the securities market.Therefore,based on the index compilation rules of Shanghai Composite Index,this paper will add index dividends and adjust the constituent stocks of Shanghai Composite Index to obtain a new index,and verify its macroeconomic "barometer" function through comparative analysis and empirical analysis.The purpose is to obtain an index that can effectively play the function of macroeconomic "barometer",So as to assist the Shanghai Composite Index to realize the function of macroeconomic "barometer".By comparing the Shanghai Composite Index with the stock market price index of developed countries,this paper studies and analyzes the factors that can enhance the macroeconomic "barometer" function of the Shanghai Composite Index,and gradually adjusts the index composition according to the corresponding factors on the basis of the preparation of the Shanghai Composite Index to obtain a new index model.Through comparative research and empirical research,this paper analyzes the reflection function and prediction function of the new index model on the macro economy to judge whether the "barometer" function of the new index model has been strengthened.Finally,the compilation method of macroeconomic "barometer" index is put forward.This paper is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly introduces the background,research status and research structure of this paper.The second chapter introduces the development process of stock price index theory,the compilation principle of stock price index,the function of stock price index,and the compilation methods of stock price index,including arithmetic average method,equity Pai’s weighting method,equity Laplace weighting method,price geometric average method and the Compilation Rules of Shanghai Composite index.The third chapter first introduces the reasons for choosing the nominal GDP index as the representative variable of macro-economy.Then,based on the compilation of Shanghai Composite Index,the benchmark price index is proposed,and two index schemes of benchmark dividend index and benchmark preferred index are obtained by adjusting the benchmark price index.Then,with reference to the compilation method of constituent stocks in developed countries and taking full account of China’s national conditions,the benchmark 103 index is designed.Finally,by comparing and analyzing the price trend of the four benchmark indexes and the nominal GDP index,we can judge whether the function of the macroeconomic "barometer" of the new index has been strengthened.The fourth chapter is empirical analysis,which is divided into three parts.The first part is the correlation test,which first tests whether each benchmark index is related to the nominal GDP index at the 1% confidence level,and then analyzes the change of the correlation coefficient to judge whether the function of the macroeconomic "barometer" of the benchmark index has been enhanced with the increase of conditions,and analyzes the reasons for its enhancement.The second part is regression analysis.This paper divides the "barometer" function of macro-economy into two parts,namely reflection function and prediction function.Regression analysis mainly analyzes the reflection function of four benchmark indexes on macro-economy.Through analysis and comparison,with the increase of index conditions,the fitting effect of the benchmark index on the nominal GDP index changes to verify whether the reflection function of the adjusted benchmark index has been enhanced.The third part is Granger causality analysis,which mainly analyzes the prediction function of the four benchmark indexes to the macro-economy.By analyzing the Granger causality between the benchmark index and the nominal GDP index,we can judge whether the benchmark index is helpful to predict the trend of the nominal GDP index,so as to judge whether the prediction function of the benchmark index is enhanced with the increase of index writing conditions.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestions.This part puts forward the compilation method of macroeconomic "barometer" index according to the results of comparative analysis and empirical analysis.It mainly includes: including the stock dividend income into the index,eliminating the influence of special processing stocks in historical data,and using the compilation method of component stock index.Then,according to these methods,the macroeconomic "barometer" index is obtained to assist the Shanghai Composite Index to realize the macroeconomic "barometer" function.Finally,this paper puts forward the shortcomings of this paper and gives enlightenment to the future research direction.