Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Corporate Leverage Ratio Under Financial Development

Since the 21 st century,especially after the explosion of the financial crisis,the Chinese government has successively formulated and issued a number of macroeconomic policies basing on the economic situation,which,on the one hand,alleviated the economic development dilemma faced by China and promoted the high-quality development of China’s economy and the optimization and upgrading of economic structure,and on the other hand,improved the uncertainty of China’s economic policies.As an important part of China’s economic life,enterprises’ financing decisions and production and operation are inevitably affected by frequent policy changes.In addition,while promoting economic development,China also attaches great importance to the coordinated development of the financial sector,putting finance in the key position of modern economy and strives to improve the efficiency of finance in serving the real economy.Based on the above research background,this paper uses the Chinese economic policy uncertainty index compiled by Huang and Luk to further discuss the relationship among the economic policy uncertainty,financial development and corporate leverage ratio with the data of all A-share enterprises from 2008 to 2020.This paper sorts out the existing research results from four aspects: the influence factors of corporate leverage ratio,the effect of economic policy uncertainty,its influence on corporate leverage ratio and the moderating effect of financial development,and summarizes relevant theories.According to the real option theory,expected savings theory,financial friction theory and financial development theory,combined with the reality of China,the empirical analysis results are as follows.Firstly,corporate leverage is negatively correlated with economic policy uncertainty index.Secondly,financial development will intensify the inhibitory effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate leverage ratio.Thirdly,heterogeneity analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty has a more significant restraining effect on corporate leverage in the short term.In addition,the increase of economic policy uncertainty has a smaller negative impact on the leverage ratio of State-Owned enterprises than that of non-state-owned enterprises,and has a significantly higher impact on the leverage ratio of manufacturing industry and micro,small and medium-sized enterprises.Finally,based on the above research results and China’s actual situation,this paper puts forward four policy suggestions: 1)reducing the uncertainty of economic policy;2)enhancinging the capacity of finance to promote economic development;3)prudently carrying out deleveraging policy;4)strengthening the risk response capability of enterprises.