Research On The Impact Of The Implementation Of CEPA On Trade Between Hong Kong And The Mainland

In recent years,with the emergence of major changes unseen in a century,globalization is facing a series of challenges and opportunities.Under the current international situation,regional economic integration has become a new situation in globalization,and more and more countries and regions have begun to actively participate in the process of regional economic integration,and its development speed is also accelerating.Since Hong Kong’s return to the motherland in 1997,Hong Kong has recovered from chaos and governance.Among them,the signing of CEPA has provided important opportunities for Hong Kong’s economic development and trade cooperation between Hong Kong and the Mainland.As the first comprehensive implementation and the most open free trade agreement in the mainland,it brought the level of economic and trade cooperation between Hong Kong and the mainland to a new level.2022 coincides with the 25 th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland.At the same time,the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to promote institutional opening,break institutional barriers,optimize the business environment,and improve the level of an open economy.Under this background,this paper evaluates the implementation effect of CEPA,helps Hong Kong to better integrate into the overall development of the country,and participates in regional economic cooperation,which is of great significance.Therefore,this paper takes CEPA as the research object,analyzes the implementation effect of CEPA by constructing a model,and puts forward the focus of future policies based on the main conclusions.First of all,taking the signing of CEPA in 2003 and the Sino-US trade friction in2017 as the time node,sorting out the trade development process between Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland,analyzes the current situation of trade in goods and services.By elaborating on the CEPA agreement Specifically,it is found that the trade structure and trade scale of trade in goods and services have changed significantly after the implementation of CEPA,and the implementation of CEPA on the trade has achieved remarkable results.After 20 years of development,the CEPA agreement has sixteen supplementary agreements.Hong Kong’s gross domestic product will have a huge boost.Secondly,by establishing the Balassa Model,an empirical analysis is made on the static effect of trade in goods and services between Hong Kong and the Mainland before and after the signing of CEPA and the proposal of the Greater Bay Area strategy.The empirical results show that the implementation of CEPA has a total trade creation effect on the trade of goods and services in Hong Kong and the mainland,and the proposal of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy has no trade creation effect on the trade in services and goods between the two places.Finally,based on the theoretical effect analysis combined with the empirical analysis results of CEPA’s implementation effect,the following three suggestions are put forward: one is to promote trade and investment facilitation,the other is to further expand the opening level of the service industry,and the third is to promote the construction of first-class business environment in the Bay Area.