Study On Overflow Effect Between China Crude Oil Futures Market And Asia-Pacific Stock Market

As an important commodity,crude oil has the political characteristics that general commodities do not have.Due to the unequal relationship between countries in crude oil pricing power,the problem of "Asian premium" is generally common.In view of the functions of hedging and risk avoidance,China’s crude oil futures market was established,providing an effective tool for crude oil pricing and investment hedging in the Asia-Pacific region.At the same time,under the "Belt and Road" initiative,the asia-pacific financial integration process is accelerating,make the influence of crude oil futures price fluctuations more easily passed to the economic system,which affect the stock price index in the asia-Pacific region,and financial and capital market disorders will eventually affect the entity industry chain,cause global economic crisis.Therefore,it is of profound significance to study the linkage and risk infectivity between China’s crude oil futures market and the Asia-Pacific stock market for the cross-market risk management and the interaction between economies.Due to the short listing time of Shanghai crude oil futures,there are still few empirical studies on the relationship between China’s crude oil futures market and the stock market.Therefore,through the use of causality test,DCC model and the Copula model,and the two markets in extreme situations,then construct the VAR model and BEKK-GARCH model to further describe the spillover effect between the crude oil futures market and the Asia-Pacific stock market,discuss the direction of financial risk transmission,and measure the strength of the risk spillover.The results show that firstly,the financial properties of Chinese crude oil futures market are increasingly obvious,with peak tail and volatility,there is significant linkage effect between Chinese oil futures market and Asia-Pacific stock market,even in extreme cases,there is two-way compensation and fluctuation spillover relationship between Chinese oil futures market and Asia-Pacific stock market.In view of this,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions from maintaining the stable operation of China’s crude oil futures market,preventing the diffusion effect of financial risks between China’s crude oil futures market and the Asia-Pacific stock market,and paying attention to the risk transmission phenomenon between China’s crude oil futures market and the stock market in special periods.