| With the deepening of world economic integration and financial liberalization,international capital flows between countries are becoming more and more frequent.Generally speaking,the normal flow of international capital can optimize the allocation of resources and make the global economy develop well together.However,in the context of external environment and internal economic uncertainty,the impact of abnormal economic events leads to a certain complexity in the scale and direction of international capital flows,forming abnormal capital flows,which will exacerbate economic uncertainty and the probability of financial crisis,and have a huge negative impact on the economy.In recent years,China’s capital account has been continuously opened and has become more and more closely linked with the international financial market.With the outbreak and spread of COVID-19,the upward trend of global inflation,the tightening of US interest rate hikes and the global political instability will all cause sharp fluctuations in capital flows in China,which will cause an adverse impact on China’s economy.Therefore,in order to prevent systemic financial risks and promote steady economic development,we must predict the abnormal capital flow and formulate emergency countermeasures to buffer the impact of abnormal capital flow on China’s economy.Based on the above background,on the basis of combing the concept definition,driving factors and early warning models of abnormal international capital flows,combined with relevant theories,this paper selects a series of asset prices and volatility under the "push-pull" framework,and constructs the domestic driving factor indicators and international driving factor indicators for predicting International capital flows through the principal component analysis method.Put the international capital flow and the value at risk model into the same framework for analysis-construct the CFAR model,and study the risk of abnormal international capital flow in China through quantile regression and the fitting of skew t distribution.The results show that:(1)the fluctuation of international and domestic financial environment will reduce China’s capital inflow and increase China’s capital outflow,and international factors are the main factors affecting China’s capital inflow and outflow.(2)Before the impact of the epidemic,there was no significant risk of capital flight in China;During the impact of the epidemic,the risk of capital flight increases significantly;After the impact of the epidemic,the risk of capital flight returned to the low point before the impact.(3)The method of using a series of financial market price information such as asset prices and volatility as indicators to predict international capital flows is effective to a certain extent.This paper holds that in order to deal with the abnormal flow of international capital,China still needs to actively promote the reform of economic system,strengthen financial supervision,control financial risks,and formulate emergency plans to deal with the abnormal flow,so as to escort the steady and sustainable growth of China’s economy. |
