The Return And Risk Analysis Of Profit-earning Structured Deposit Products Of China Construction Bank

In recent years,with China’s macroeconomic growth slowing down and the pressure of market competition increasing,the profits of commercial banks in the inherent sense of the financial market have been shrinking year by year,the harsh market environment makes commercial banks focus on various flexible and personalized financial services,so the development of structured deposit market ushered in the first spring.But because the development history of this kind of product is not long in our country,the related rules and regulations also need to be perfected,which leads to a large number of non-standard behaviors in this market,as investors suffer losses on their assets and regulators face implementation bottlenecks,the importance of analysing the pricing,return and risk of structured deposits is becoming apparent.This article is based on the three-phase exchange rate links issued by China Construction Bank.Secondly,Construction Bank is in a leading position in my country.The number of products issued by its products in the current market in my country’s market is relatively large,so it is representative.After studying the academic publications of existing existing structural deposits at home and abroad,the following analysis was conducted in this article: First of all,a brief introduction to the current status of the structural deposits sold by the Construction Bank,and then the three target products Overview of the specific distribution,mainly includes its hook label,duration period,income status,product description,etc.Secondly,through the establishment of the Garch model,the volatility required for subsequent calculations is obtained,and the three products are valued and analyzed by the three products through the historical simulation method and the Monte Carlo simulation method,and the possible factor of income fluctuations from the theoretical perspective.Finally,analyze the risk level of the three products from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative perspectives,use sensitive analysis methods to obtain variables that affect product value,and then analyze the market risks of structural deposits through the historical simulation method,that is,the VAR value to its VAR value Calculation.According to the results of empirical analysis,the conclusions can be shown in the following: 1.The pricing of the three structural deposits issued by China Construction Bank is issued at a discount and generally at a reasonable level.The valuation of structural deposits obtained by the law is more accurate.For both issues and investors,discount issuance is good for each.2.Measurement of the gain level of the three products,after the calculation of Monte Carlo simulated,the three products are obtained from the highest yield shown in the manual,and the product returns obtained by the historical simulation method are The rate is generally lower than the results obtained by Monte Carlo,but according to analysis,as long as the number of experiments under the Monte Carlo method is very large,the accuracy of the result is better than the historical simulation method.Therefore The yield is the highest yield shown in the product manual.Many variables may cause the income of structural products to fluctuate,and can start analyzing from the factors of macro and micro perspectives.The macro aspects mainly include the market’s environment and various policies and regulatory regulations issued by the government.Starting from the product itself,it is analyzed according to the characteristics of the product,including product period,investor rights,and asset risk levels.3.The measurement of the risk status of structural products,from a qualitative perspective,its specific risk categories include market risks,liquidity risks,legal and policy risks,and information transmission risks.The value of the Va R value is that its market risk level is low,and it is suitable for investment in stable investors.The innovation of this thesis is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1.The research object is the structural product of exchange rate which is the subject of less research at present.2.The research content innovatively carries on the comprehensive analysis to the structural deposit valuation,the income as well as the risk.3.The research method innovatively evaluates the structured deposit products by history simulation method and Monte Carlo simulation method,and compares the results of the two methods.