Evaluation Of The Comprehensive Benefits Of Virtual Water Trade In Grain Between China And Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

Food security and water security are critical issues for long-term development in every country and region,and water security serves as the essential foundation for food security.Currently,China faces various hidden risks in ensuring food security,including high external dependence and concentration,tightening constraints on water and land resources,and negative impacts from public health incidents and major disasters.Meanwhile,China suffers from severe water scarcity,with per capita water resources significantly below the global average,and agriculture has consistently been the dominant consumer of water resources.Against this backdrop,the emergence of virtual water trade strategies provides a new option for addressing water resource shortages and ensuring national food supply.The introduction of the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013 has created favorable conditions for resolving China’s food security issues and water resource scarcity.This paper provides a systematic review of the core concepts and theoretical foundations of virtual water in grain crops.It also examines the research findings related to grain trade in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative in recent years.Additionally,it analyzes the evolving trends in China’s grain trade with the "Belt and Road" countries from2000 to 2020,focusing on four major grain crops: wheat,rice,corn,and soybeans.Furthermore,using the Fast-track(FT)method,it calculates the import and export volumes of virtual water in these four grain crops between China and the 65 countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative from 2000 to 2020.The study also analyzes the changes in product structure and market structure in virtual water trade of grain crops.Moreover,eight indicators from the economic,ecological,and social aspects are selected to quantify the benefits brought by the flow of virtual water in grain trade.The paper employs the entropy weight method and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate the overall benefits in each aspect.Taking a three-dimensional perspective,it analyzes the economic,ecological,and social impacts of the flow of virtual water trade in the four major grain crops between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2020.The findings of this study provide references for deepening international grain trade cooperation and facilitating the effective implementation of virtual water trade strategies.The study reveals the following findings:(1)Although the overall flow of virtual water in grain crops between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative changes in line with the total trade volume,there are significant differences between the flow of virtual water and grain trade.Implementing a virtual water strategy requires considering the linkages between the two.(2)Ecological benefits are the most crucial factor influencing the overall benefits of virtual water trade in grain crops.According to the calculation results of the entropy weight method,the ecological benefits have a weight of0.5862 in the comprehensive evaluation,followed by economic benefits with a weight of0.2399,while social benefits have the lowest weight of 0.1739.This indicates that the ecological benefits have the greatest impact on the comprehensive benefits of China’s virtual water trade in grain crops with countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative.(3)The overall situation of the comprehensive benefits of the flow of virtual water trade in grain crops between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative is moderate,with a noticeable gap between net inflow and net outflow regions.The benefits of virtual water trade in grain crops can be categorized into four classes: extremely high(above 100),high(10-100),moderate(1-10),and low(below 1).Only Ukraine falls into the category of extremely high virtual water trade benefits for grain crops,while there are seven countries with high and moderate benefits.The remaining countries have low benefits in virtual water trade for grain crops.Based on the aforementioned research findings,this paper provides recommendations within the context of ensuring food security and water security in China,aiming to facilitate the rapid development of Chinese grain trade and alleviate water scarcity.The suggestions are as follows:(1)Adjust and optimize grain trade and the flow of virtual water to promote balanced socioeconomic and ecological development.(2)Implement virtual water strategies in accordance with national conditions and establish a new model for sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources.(3)Implement the concept of the "dual circulation" strategy and promote the flow of virtual water in grain trade along the countries of the "Belt and Road" initiative.