Research On The Evolution Of Financial Network Public Opinion And Its Impact On Stock Market Fluctuation

Under the background of great uncertainty in the current international economic situation,financial risks occur frequently at home and abroad.once a sudden financial network public opinion event occurs,it is very easy to cause social panic through the Internet,and then lead to the fluctuation of the stock market.and contagious stock market fluctuations will induce systemic financial risks.Therefore,it is of great significance to deeply study the evolution of financial network public opinion and its impact on stock market volatility,monitor and guide public opinion scientifically,steadily promote the steady development of China’s stock market,and prevent and defuse systemic financial risks.Based on this,this paper first constructs the evolution model of financial network public opinion,and simulates the influence of individual acceptance,trust threshold and relationship intensity on the aggregation of financial network public opinion.Secondly,take the financial public opinion caused by the A-share collapse in April 2022 as a real case to test the aggregation process of financial network public opinion and depict the evolution mechanism of financial network public opinion.Finally,we build a VAR model based on intra-day high-frequency data to empirically analyze the impact of financial network public opinion on stock market volatility.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)in the process of aggregation of public opinion in the financial network,the greater the individual acceptance is,the more likely it is to interact with each other,and the faster the aggregation rate of public opinion is;the larger the threshold of group trust is,the smaller the number of opinion clusters formed by the evolution of public opinion is,and the faster the diversity of views in the network tends to be consistent;the strong relationship is more conducive to the aggregation of public opinion in the financial network.(2)in the evolution of financial public opinion caused by the collapse of A shares in April 2022,individual investors did realize the aggregation of views gradually through the interaction of opinions,and the strong relationship between individual investors and mainstream financial media promoted the evolution of public opinion.Finally,the positive and negative emotions of investors show a trend of two-level differentiation.(3)Financial network public opinion can promote the overall volatility of the stock market.The impact of financial network public opinion on stock market volatility is the strongest in the short term,and its influence decreases with the passage of time.(4)among the three elements of financial network public opinion,the trust threshold has the most significant impact on stock market volatility.The research results of this paper are of enlightening significance to improve the supervision of China’s financial network public opinion,promote the good and stable development of China’s stock market,and prevent systemic financial risks.The marginal contribution of this paper lies in:(1)from an interdisciplinary perspective,combined with the theories of social science,natural science and finance,this paper analyzes the impact of financial network public opinion on stock market volatility from the micro level of individual behavior and interaction rules.(2)this paper optimizes the traditional DW model,constructs and simulates the evolution model of financial network public opinion,systematically reveals the evolution mechanism of financial network public opinion,and takes the financial public opinion caused by the collapse of A-shares in April 2022 as a real case to discuss the realistic evolution mechanism of China’s financial network public opinion.(3)this paper constructs intra-day high-frequency data,and takes individual acceptance,relationship intensity and trust threshold as the influencing factors of financial network public opinion evolution to construct relevant public opinion factor indicators,respectively.This paper empirically tests the effect of influencing factors on stock market volatility in the evolution of financial network public opinion.