Research On The Spatial-temporal Characteristics And Driving Mechanism Of High-quality Agricultural Development In The Middle And Lower Reaches Of The Yellow River

China has put forward the concept of “high-quality development” in 2017,which marks the transformation of economy from high-speed growth stage to high-quality development stage.High-quality agricultural development is a path to improve resource utilization efficiency and agricultural environmental carrying capacity under the background of ecological civilization.It is also an important measure to actively respond to climate change and reduce agricultural carbon emissions.As an important grain producing area and energy base,the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River have a significant impact on China ’s economic development.However,the development of agricultural economy in this region has been restricted by resource endowments and institutional constraints in recent years.The traditional extensive economic development mode has been unable to meet the people ’s growing food needs and diversified product needs.Therefore,it is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of agriculture,explore the general regularity of its development,and provide direction for the transformation of agricultural economic power.We combs the relevant literature on high-quality agricultural development at home and abroad,combines the characteristics of ecological environment vulnerability and strong resource dependence in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River,and relies on the endogenous economic growth theory to explain the connotation of high-quality agricultural development.From the four aspects of efficiency,intensification,coordination and greening,15 specific indicators were selected to construct the index system of high-quality agricultural development in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to objectively weight the evaluation indicators and calculate the high-quality agricultural development index.Then analyze its characteristics from two perspectives of time and space.In terms of time,it pays attention to its overall characteristics and stage characteristics.In terms of space,it analyzes the overall spatial characteristics and interprovincial differences respectively.At the same time,it uses the σ convergence model to examine the overall regional development potential difference in space.Based on its heterogeneity and convergence analysis,from the perspective of improving agricultural total factor productivity,this paper chooses four variables : scientific and technological innovation ability,industrial structure adjustment,human capital level and environmental regulation intensity,and uses panel regression model to carry out fixed effect regression to explain the reasons and driving mechanism of spatial and temporal differences in high-quality agricultural development.Finally,the feasible generalized least squares method and panel correction standard deviation are used to correct the inter-group heteroscedasticity and intra-group autocorrelation of the model to ensure the robustness of the empirical results.Through the above research,we draw the following conclusions:(1)The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River have actively explored the promotion of high-quality agricultural development from the aspects of industrial optimization,rural construction and ecological protection.However,there are still common and individual development problems in the region,mainly reflected in three aspects: low infrastructure coverage,lack of agricultural talents and technology,and weak driving force of new business entities.(2)The time characteristics of high-quality agricultural development in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River are characterized by overall fluctuations and strong growth momentum;the growth rate showed phased characteristics,mainly affected by agricultural policies,with four growth peaks around 2004,2007,2010 and 2019.(3)The spatial characteristics mainly show that the high-quality development index of agriculture in the middle reaches is lower than that in the lower reaches.There are common shortcomings in the high-quality development of agriculture at the provincial level in terms of greening and coordination.At the regional steadystate level,affected by the economic base and resource endowment of each province,the highquality development of the five provinces will not move towards the same steady-state level in the short term.(4)Technological innovation ability,industrial structure adjustment,human capital level and environmental regulation can have a positive driving effect on high-quality agricultural development.Convergence differences are mainly affected by technological innovation and environmental regulation.(5)The driving mechanism of high-quality agricultural development is that the four factors of scientific and technological innovation,industrial structure,human capital and environmental regulation play a role with agricultural total factor productivity as an intermediary.Based on the research conclusions of this paper,the following policy implications are proposed.(1)Explore regional characteristic products and explore personalized high-quality paths;(2)Actively introduce supportive policies to reduce institutional constraints on agricultural development;(3)seize the opportunity of cooperative development,give full play to the advantages of backwardness,and promote regional convergence;(4)Accelerate the adjustment of factor upgrading and cultivate new kinetic energy for agricultural development;(5)Pay attention to the progress of scientific and technological talents and the coordination of macro policies to narrow the gap between regional development.