Research On The Effectiveness Of New Monetary Policy From The Perspective Of Volume And Price Contrast

Based on the interest rate liberalization and the transformation of quantity and price,this thesis makes an empirical study on whether the new monetary policy is more quantitative or price based.At present,most of the research on the new monetary policy focuses on the transmission channel and effectiveness of the new monetary policy,and the comparative study on the effectiveness of quantitative and price monetary policies.However,there are few studies on which effect of the new monetary policy is stronger: interest rate or quantity.Therefore,on behalf of the medium-term lending facility,this thesis studies the impact of the new monetary policy on the financial market and the macro economy respectively from the perspectives of interest rate and quantity,and compares which of the interest rate and quantity of the new monetary policy has the better control effect,so as to analyze whether the new monetary policy is price based or quantitative based.This is of great theoretical significance to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and the advancement of interest rate liberalization.The thesis analyses the transmission mechanism of the new monetary policy in financial market and macroeconomics.This thesis extends the CC-LM model and theoretically analyzes the influences of interest rate and quantity of medium-term lending facility on credit interest rate,market interest rate and money supply in financial market,as well as the influences of interest rate and quantity on output effect and inflation effect in macro economy from the perspectives of financial market and macro economy,so as to provide theoretical support for empirical research.The thesis analyses the transmission mechanism of the new monetary policy in financial market and macroeconomics.This thesis extends the CC-LM model,constructs the equilibrium model of commodity market,money market and credit market,introduces the medium-term lending facility,and theoretically analyzes the influence of the interest rate and quantity of medium-term lending facility on the credit interest rate and money supply in the financial market from the perspectives of financial market and macro economy.And the influence of interest rate and quantity on output effect and inflation effect in macro economy.Then,by comparing the size of derivative,we put forward the hypothesis that interest rate of medium-term lending facility is better than quantity regulation effect,which provides theoretical support for empirical research.In the empirical test part,this thesis is also divided into two parts: financial market and macro economy.In terms of model selection,this thesis uses a group of rich time-varying models to calculate DIC and marginal likelihood values of this group of time-varying models through Bayesian model comparison and MCMC sampling algorithm.Finally,according to the DIC minimum principle and the maximum marginal likelihood principle,the optimal model is determined to be the SVAR model with first-order lag.Then,the SVAR model is used to test the effects of interest rate and quantity on the financial market and macro economy respectively.The results show that: the effects of interest rate and quantity are very similar in many aspects in the financial market and macro economy,but the response range of financial market and macro economy to the interest rate shock is more significant than the quantity.Therefore,this thesis believes that the interest rate regulation effect of the new monetary policy is superior to quantity and is more favorable to the price monetary policy,which is also consistent with the process of marketization of interest rate of our country.Finally,the conclusions and policy suggestions are summarized.The linkage between the quantity of the new monetary policy and interest rate is not strong,and the information conveyed by quantity and interest rate would be inconsistent with the policy effect.Differences also appear in the policy effect and policy objectives reached by the method of quantitative transmission.Based on this,China should speed up the process of volume and price transition and interest rate liberalization,actively smooth the interest rate transmission mechanism from all aspects,improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission,support the realization of the new monetary policy interest rate transmission effect,and promote the Chinese monetary policy to regulate the real economy more accurately and efficiently.