Dynamic Evaluation And Management Of Credit Risk In Supply Chain Finance

China has paid great attention to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises,and frequently issued relevant documents and policies to increase financing support for them.Supply chain finance is easier for smes to solve financing problems.However,with its development,the risk management problem gradually highlights,among which,the credit risk caused by the conditional freedom of smes and the external policy restriction is the key risk that hinders the smooth implementation of supply chain finance business.And credit risk will spread through the enterprise to the whole supply chain,great harm.However,current studies focus more on the overall identification of credit risk,and lack of credit risk studies considering the financing warehouse model including the role of third-party logistics,and financing warehouse is an important tool and method of supply chain management.In this context,it is of positive significance to carry out credit risk management research on financing warehouse mode to control supply chain financing risk of smes and realize multi-party win-win situation.To explore the supply chain financial credit risk formation mechanism,solve the quantitative problem,based on the theory of complex systems,to finance-transportation model as the research object,analyses the factors that affect the mode of credit risk,constructs the system dynamics model,using DPS software,using grey prediction model GM(1,1)on the dynamic evaluation and prediction.A case is selected to verify the validity of the model.In addition,the sensitivity analysis is carried out from three aspects: credit risk control of financial institutions,external environment and supply chain relationship.The influence degree of each factor change on credit risk of supply chain finance is analyzed.The results show that:(1)The relationship duration,relationship strength,information technology and supply chain financial credit risk are inversely related;(2)There is a positive relationship between economic environmental risk,legal risk,industry risk and supply chain financial credit risk;(3)The degree of influence of economic and environmental risk,legal risk,relationship duration,relationship strength,industry risk and information technology on supply chain financial credit risk decreases successively;(4)On the whole,it is more significant that the external environment and supply chain relationship on supply chain finance credit risk.(5)For supply chain finance business,the greater the credit risk of financing enterprises,the greater the credit risk of supply chain finance.Core enterprises have the ability to enhance credit.Control of financial institutions is a way to reduce credit risk.Supply chain financial credit risk is easily improved by supply chain relationship.Finally,on the basis of simulation and sensitivity analysis.From the perspective of enterprises,financial institutions and government,this paper puts forward the control and optimization measures of supply chain finance credit risk under the financing warehouse mode.This study reveals the multiple feedback structure of system,clarify its evolution mechanism In this study,the multiple feedback structure of credit risk system of supply chain finance is revealed and its evolution mechanism is clear.In addition,system dynamics is introduced into the study,so that the measurement of credit risk has a law to follow,so as to put forward suggestions for understanding and prevention and control of supply chain finance credit risk,and effectively improve the financing success rate of supply chain finance business.