Research On The Impact Of Bank Credit On The Virtual And Real Structure Of The Econom

The real economy is the basis of a country’s development,in recent years,the total volume of China’s real economy has been growing,but the situation of economic "dematerialization to virtuality" has become more and more serious,and the absolute increase in the real economy can no longer be used to judge whether the economy is developing healthily.As the most important external financing channel in China,bank credit is bound to be one of the key factors affecting the virtual and real structure of China’s economy,and studying the impact of bank credit on the virtual and real structure of the economy is an important basis for adjusting the current policy,which is of great practical significance.Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,this paper explores the relationship between bank credit and economic virtual and real structure from the two dimensions of scale and structure,using models such as intermediary effect,regulatory effect and threshold effect,and the research results show that:(1)the growth of credit scale will make the virtualization of economic structure more serious,and the decline in the return on macro capital after tax in the real economy is an important reason for the deepening of the degree of virtualization of economic structure;The impact of increased credit in the East has had a stronger impact on the virtualization of the economic structure than in the Midwest.(2)Industrial structure transformation plays an intermediary role,and bank credit will support the transformation of industrial structure to tertiary industry,but the increase in the proportion of tertiary industry will cause the virtualization of economic structure to be more serious;There is no mediating effect in the east,and there is a significant mediation effect in the central and western regions.(3)The degree of marketization plays a regulating role in bank credit,which will strengthen the bank’s risk pricing ability and cause banks to act rashly,but will promote the virtualization of the economic structure,which will be stronger in the east than in the central and western regions,and the overall role brought about by the increase in the degree of marketization is stronger than the regulatory role.(4)Innovation has a threshold effect,when innovation exceeds the threshold,the demand for funds is large,and social investors will put more credit funds into the virtual economy in order to obtain more innovation funds,at which time bank credit has a strong impact on the virtualization of economic structure.(5)The main structure of credit and the term structure of credit have a significant inhibitory effect on the virtualization of economic structure,and the increase in the proportion of loans to real enterprises and medium-and long-term loans in the eastern region and loans to entities in the central and western regions will significantly inhibit the virtual and real structure of the economy,but there is no significant effect on medium-and long-term loans in the central and western regions.Finally,according to the research conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of controlling the scale of credit,optimizing the credit structure,increasing support for innovation and the secondary industry,and adhering to the combination of market-oriented reform and government guidance,so as to provide some reference for optimizing China’s existing bank credit to better support the development of the real economy.