| Commercial banks play a pivotal role in our financial system,and the steady operation of commercial banks is crucial to the high-quality development and transformation of our economy.However,the topic of risk taking has not been paid much attention to in the study of commercial banks.Until 2008,the subprime crisis sweeping the world made risk management become the focus of scholars’ research.Banks are also putting more emphasis on risk management in their operations.In 2020,the unexpected arrival of the COVID-19,a "black swan" event,caused huge damage to the global economy.Different from previous economic crises,the initiator of this crisis was a super infectious disease.Therefore,even with the experience and lessons of the 2008 financial crisis,the world could not avoid the situation of economic downturn and financial market turmoil.In this context,developed capitalist countries adopted quantitative easing measures,which temporarily stopped the economic downturn,but also left the hidden danger of inflation.Different from capitalist countries,in this epidemic impact,our country did not adopt a loose policy of flood irrigation,but put more energy and time into the fight against the epidemic,so as to ensure people’s lives.However,it is undeniable that in the course of the epidemic impact,a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in the worst-hit areas are facing enormous operating pressure,and many of them even went bankrupt.Due to the transmission effect of credit channels,the non-performing loan amount and non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks,as lenders,also appear the phenomenon of "double rise".Banks are faced with the rapid accumulation of potential credit risks,and the sustainable operation ability and profit creation ability are faced with great challenges.In view of the above situation,this paper explores the effect and mechanism of the COVID-19 impact on risk taking of commercial banks in detail.First of all,this paper systematically reviews a large number of domestic and foreign literature on the impact of the epidemic on the economy and finance,and roughly understands the research status of bank risk-taking,and further clarifies the relationship between the two.Secondly,this paper builds a D-L-M theoretical model incorporating the epidemic impact,and further analyzes the effect of the epidemic impact on banks’ risk-taking and intermediary channels by combining the current economic and financial situation and mathematical derivation.Then,using the data of 42 commercial banks listed in China’s A-share market from the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020,this paper establishes the difference-in-differences model and the multiple mediator model to empirically investigate the impact of the epidemic on the level of risk taking of commercial banks and the internal mechanism.The research findings are as follows: First,the impact of the epidemic will significantly increase the level of risk taking of commercial banks;Second,the impact of the epidemic will affect the risk taking level of banks through three intermediary channels:the decline of bank securities investment,the shrinkage of bank loan scale and the narrowing of bank deposit and loan interest spread.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions from the level of government supervision and commercial banks:monetary policy and fiscal policy should be combined,improve relevant incentive and restraint mechanisms;Improve the mechanism for dealing with non-performing loans and the ecosystem for dealing with non-performing assets;Improve risk management ability and broaden business channels;strengthen the development of financial technology and standardize its supervision.The research and analysis of this paper has reference value to further explore the economic impact of the epidemic. |
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