| Vegetable price fluctuates frequently and violently,which is manifested by high market risk.Compared with grain,cotton,oil,fruit,meat and other bulk agricultural products,vegetable prices fluctuate among the highest."Ginger you army","garlic you ruthless" and other new terms are the direct embodiment of the sharp fluctuation of vegetable prices.Due to the impact of natural disasters,hot money speculation and other factors,the supply of vegetable market is unstable,resulting in sharp price fluctuations of vegetable market.The sharp price fluctuation of vegetable market has greatly affected the normal consumption of residents and the interests of farmers,and has also aroused widespread concern of the society.Therefore,it is of great practical significance for the healthy and stable development of vegetable market to summarize the characteristics of vegetable price fluctuation,accurately measure the risk value of vegetable market and evaluate the occurrence degree of vegetable market risk.This study studied the current situation of vegetable industry development from the aspects of price trend,fluctuation characteristics and price transmission of vegetable market,and found that the price fluctuation of Chinese vegetable market is closely related to the market risk.Aiming at the price fluctuation risk of vegetable market,this paper evaluates the market risk of main vegetable varieties by using the value-at-risk method,and compares the price fluctuation risk of vegetable with grain,oil and other commodities to measure the relative size and occurrence degree of vegetable market risk comprehensively and systematically.At the same time,VAR model and BEKK-GARCH model were used to deeply study the risk transmission of different vegetable market prices from the perspective of mean value and fluctuation,and finally put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the risk prevention and control of Chinese vegetable market.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The market prices of different varieties of vegetables such as white radish,potato and lettuce have similar trends,and their price fluctuations show seasonal and cyclical characteristics.(2)The price change of cucumber has a great impact on the price of other vegetable varieties,indicating that cucumber has strong substitution,and the price of cucumber,white radish and bean are sensitive to the price change information of other vegetables,and contribute a lot to share the rising pressure of various vegetable prices,indicating that cucumber has a strong ability to share the risk from other vegetable markets.(3)By comparing the price fluctuation risk of vegetable market with that of grain and oil market,it is found that the frequency of price fluctuation risk of vegetable market is higher than that of grain and oil market,indicating that the risk of vegetable market is larger;In the vegetable market,the price fluctuation risk of melons and vegetables is greater than that of other kinds of vegetables.(4)The mean spillover effect between potatoes and Dutch beans,tomatoes and green peppers,tomatoes and potatoes,tomatoes and Dutch beans,potatoes and lettuce,tomatoes and lettuce was bidirectional,and the other varieties were mostly unidirectional spillover effect.The prices of Dutch beans,bitter gourd,lettuce,potato and tomato all have volatility spillover effects with their previous prices.Most of these five vegetable prices have volatility spillover effects among each other,but the type and degree of volatility spillover effects are different,only the price of tomato has no volatility spillover effect on the price of lettuce and potato.Based on the above research results,this study puts forward the following policy suggestions for the risk prevention and control of vegetable market price: establish a perfect vegetable price early warning mechanism,monitor and regulate abnormal price fluctuations in the market of important vegetable varieties,and conduct differentiated risk management according to the actual situation of different vegetable markets. |
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