Study On The Usage Of Local Government Debt Quota From The Perspective Of Text Analysis

Full usage of local government debt quota is another problem which appears after controlling the disorderly expansion of local government debt by imposing ceilings.With the increasing downward pressure on China’s economy and the further growth of local government debt,how to strengthen and improve local debt governance in the balance of stable growth and risk prevention,and how to deal with local debt issues under debt quota management are the directions that need to be paid attention to at present.After 2015,debt work has become an important part of the local government budget report when the local government debt was within budget.It provides a new perspective for observing local debt problem and analyzing the aspiration of borrowing.Based on the research background of quota management of the new Budget Law and the research perspective of text analysis,this paper firstly sorts out relevant literature and policies,proposes assumptions and explains them;Secondly,using the debt data and financial budget reports of prefecture-level units from 2016 to 2020,we separately constructed indicators of usage ratio of quota and aspiration of borrowing,Then this paper examines the impact of aspiration on budget usage and its internal mechanism by two-way fixed effect model,etc.The conclusion shows that:(1)Compared with the risk prevention attitude to borrow,the aspiration of borrowing will significantly promote the usage of quota,which shows that the willingness of steady growth investment promotion will inspire the full usage of quota.(2)The usage of quota in neighboring regions has obvious strategic interactions,and the aspiration of borrowing will have a positive spillover effect on the borrowing behavior within quota in other neighboring regions through the spatial mechanism,while the attitude of risk prevention has no significant spatial effect.(3)When considering the borrowing behavior within quota into two stages:quota allocation and quota usage,new-added quota will have a partially mediating effect in the process of aspiration’ influence to usage of quota.Specifically,local governments can get more new-added quotas due to strong aspiration of borrowing when allocating,but it can weaken the incentive effect from aspiration to some extent when using quota.(4)Due to the mediating effect of new-added quota,the promotion of the aspiration of borrowing on the quota usage has been partially weakened.However,solvency can partially offset this adverse impact,which is reflected in the fact that the enhancement of solvency will weaken the burden caused by excessive new-added quota,encourage local governments to actively borrow and indirectly promote the full usage of quota.In view of the above conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on the allocation and management of local debt quota,so as to better play the role of quota management in restraining debt expansion and preventing debt risk while making good use of bond funds and maintaining stable economic growth.