Research On China-ASEAN Trade Potential Under The Framework Of RCEP

RCEP is currently the world’s largest economy in terms of economic volume.It is also the free trade agreement with the largest number of members,the widest scope and the greatest impact among the FTAs in which China is involved.By signing RCEP,countries are taking practical action to deepen economic integration and safeguard the global multilateral trading system,and the signing of RCEP will be an important catalyst for countries to offset the negative impact of the epidemic and promote long-term stability in the world.At the same time,as China’s largest partner in the Asia-Pacific region,ASEAN is also an important participant in China’s "One Belt,One Road" construction and a leading player in the RCEP,so analysing the trade potential of China-ASEAN under the RCEP framework is of great importance to the trade development of both China and ASEAN.Based on bilateral trade data between China and ASEAN from 2001 to 2019,this thesis analyses the competitiveness and complementarity of trade between the two sides,and finds that China and ASEAN have strong similarities in low-tech products,with more intense trade competition between the two sides,but higher complementarity in resource-intensive and high-tech products.It can also implement policies that will make resource-intensive manufactured goods and high-tech products the main direction for trade expansion between the two sides.Based on the simulation results of Frontier 4.1,the bilateral trade efficiency and trade potential of China-ASEAN were also examined under the RCEP framework.The analysis leads to the following conclusions: natural factors such as economic size,population and distance determine the size of trade potential,while human factors such as trade,transport facilitation and economic liberalisation influence the realisation of trade potential.In addition,there is still trade potential that can be tapped between China and ASEAN.In order to enhance the trade efficiency of China-ASEAN and expand the bilateral trade potential,this thesis gives the following suggestions: to vigorously promote technological progress and scientific and technological innovation to achieve the gradual upgrading of China’s industrial structure;to take the establishment of RCEP as an opportunity to build a diversified China-ASEAN economic and trade platform;to continue to promote infrastructure construction and enhance the level of transport facilitation;to simplify the import and export process and improve the level of trade facilitation;to enhance ability to withstand the economic crisis and steadily resolve systemic financial risks.