Research On The Financial Risks Of "specialized, Sophisticated And Innovative" Enterprise

Small and medium-sized enterprises(smes)play a vital role in China’s national economic and social development,and have become the backbone force to accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode and improve the ability of independent innovation.At present,China’s rapid economic development,small and medium-sized enterprises in the provision of jobs,innovative development and guarantee of high-quality economic growth and other aspects can not be ignored.The "specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" enterprises refer to the small and medium-sized enterprises with the four characteristics of "Specialization,Refinement,Differentiation,Innovation".They are the leading and leading enterprises among small and medium-sized enterprises.But specialization,"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" companies have been financing difficulties,financing expensive problems,Beijing securities exchange for specialization,"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" enterprise provides a place for the financing,specialization,"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" the financial risk of the enterprise has been highlighted,covering the volatility in financial market risk and the risk of loss.First,ARMA-GARCH and VaR modeling were used to analyze the financial risk characteristics of "specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" enterprises,and the results were compared and analyzed with Shanghai Composite Index,Shenzhen Component Index,GEM index and small and medium-sized composite index.(1)ARMA(0,1)-GARCH(1,1)and ARMA(0,1)-EGARCH(1,1)are suitable for the modeling of "specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" index.ARMA(0,1)-EGARCH(1,1)is relatively better,and the optimal residual distribution is biased to ged distribution.(2)Kupiec test shows that ARMA-GARCH modeling can effectively predict 10% and 5%VaR of the "specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" index,but the prediction effect of 1%VaR is not good;(3)compared with other indices,both movements,or the risk of loss,specialization,"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" firms,which is one of the biggest,the means of "specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" enterprise financial risk is more difficult to handle than other enterprises.Based on the ARMA-GARCH-Copula model,we further study the volatility risk spillover effect of "specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" enterprises,CPI and investor sentiment.Based on edge distribution ARMA model-GARCH model,using copulas connect to the correlation of modeling,and then use granger causality test path,the results showed that:(1)specialization,"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" risk index and CPI fluctuations between negative spillover,changes in the CPI is specialization,"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" reason of fluctuation;(2)"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" index between investor sentiment and positive fluctuation risk spillover effect,volatility is specialization,"specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" business emotional ups and downs.This paper tries to model the financial risks of "specialization,refinement,differentiation,innovation" enterprises from two dimensions of financial risk characteristics and volatility risk spillover,but there are still some shortcomings,such as limited by the data,failing to investigate the dynamic prediction and application of risks,and failing to carry out the policy effect research.