| In recent years,the real estate industry has developed rapidly,but its high leverage and turnover model has also accumulated huge risks for the real estate industry.The real estate industry has also been constantly "thunderstruck",and the debt problem of real estate enterprises has attracted widespread attention from society.With the decline of the real estate industry,the country’s policies for the real estate industry are constantly tightening.In addition to the sudden impact of the epidemic,the real estate industry is facing weak sales,and the operating performance of the industry is also affected.Capital turnover is difficult,and the liquidity crisis is gradually exposed.As a leading domestic real estate company,China Evergrande has defaulted on its debts,which has had a huge impact on society.The reasons for its default are also worth people’s attention and contemplation.Based on this,this paper selects China Evergrande’s debt default event as the Case study object,analyzes the direct or brief impact of China Evergrande’s debt default in detail,and aims to play a certain reference role for other real estate enterprises,as well as provide reference for the government and relevant stakeholders in risk prevention and early warning by digging the root causes of Evergrande’s debt default.This article comprehensively applies case analysis,literature review analysis,and qualitative and quantitative analysis methods for research.Firstly,this article provides an overview of the research background and methods;Secondly,a literature review was conducted on the debt default of enterprises both domestically and internationally.Once again,this article provides a detailed explanation of the background,process,and subsequent handling measures of Evergrande’s debt default,taking into account the current background of China’s real estate industry.Based on this,this article provides a detailed analysis of the impact of Evergrande’s breach and the causes of the breach.The impact analysis is mainly conducted from the industry level and relevant stakeholders,and the cause analysis is mainly conducted from the external macro and internal levels of the enterprise.Finally,through in-depth research on the case and risk warning analysis of enterprises using Z-value model and KMV model,relevant insights and suggestions were provided for real estate enterprises,investors,governments,and regulatory agencies.Through the full text analysis,the following conclusion can be drawn: China Evergrande’s aggressive expansion has accumulated too much debt,and the debt structure,financing structure,term structure,and company system are not very reasonable,as well as blind diversified development.The combined effects of various factors have led to problems in China Evergrande’s capital chain.At the same time as the accumulation of risks,the sudden impact of the epidemic and the introduction of the "three red lines" policy further put pressure on China Evergrande’s cash flow,ultimately leading to debt default.By comparing the warning effects of the Z-value model,KMV model,and credit rating on China Evergrande’s debt default,it is believed that the KMV model is more accurate in terms of the size and trend of default risk.The use of other indicator models can further enhance the warning effect.Therefore,this article proposes several suggestions from the perspectives of enterprises,investors,and regulatory authorities: for enterprises themselves,they should optimize their financing structure and strategic layout,improve risk warning mechanisms,and strengthen operational risk management;Rating agencies should optimize the credit rating system;From a policy perspective,we can further improve the bond market access and regulatory mechanism,and solidly promote the adaptation of real estate policies to local conditions.Investors should maintain diversity in asset allocation to reduce risks,while strengthening risk identification and evaluation,and establishing a reasonable investment system. |
PDF Full Text Request