| With the rapid development of our country’s economy,bonds have become one of the primary forms of financing for enterprises,similar to stocks.However,the expansion of the bond market has led to an increase in bond default incidents,exerting an impact on the stability and development of our economic and social realms.Therefore,assessing the risk associated with bond defaults is of utmost significance in this context.After explaining the basic situation and default history of the case,this selected 35 A-share listed companies in the upstream,midstream,and downstream of real estate that were marked as ST in 2021 as the default group samples,and selected 126 companies with good financial conditions as the control group based on the principle of the same industry and similar asset sizes.Using the stock market information and debt value of the sample companies,the default distance DD is calculated,and an independent sample T-test is conducted on the default distance,The results indicate that the default distance DD of the sample companies shows significant differences,indicating that the default distance of enterprises can be used as an indicator to judge their default risk.Subsequently,whether the bond subject has defaulted is used as the binary dependent variable,and the financial indicators of the sample company in2021 are used as the independent variable.The variables of the sample company were gradually regressed,and the LOGIT model constructed has an overall prediction accuracy of 88.82% for the sample,which has a certain ability to predict the credit risk of listed companies.Due to the fact that the LOGIT model only reflects historical situations,a more timely indicator of default distance DD is added.The default distance DD is taken as an independent variable and gradually regressed into the LOGIT model.The results show that the combined KMV LOGIT model has better fitting performance than the traditional LOGIT model,and a negative correlation is found between bond default risk and operating cash flow interest bearing debt ratio,total asset growth rate,and net asset growth rate per share.The conclusion that there is a positive correlation between debt to equity ratio,total operating cost ratio,total operating cost growth rate,and tangible asset liability ratio is consistent with economic significance.The overall discrimination rate of the KMV-LOGIT model reaches 90.68%,which is higher than the basic LOGIT model,indicating that the model has stronger discrimination ability.At the same time,this thesis introduces the default distance DD and financial indicators calculated by Yango Group Co.,Ltd into the KMV-LOGIT model,and compares them with the actual situation in2021,proving that the model has good accuracy in practical application.On this basis,it analyzes the reasons for Yango Group Co.,Ltd’s bond default.Finally,based on the inspiration obtained from the case analysis,suggestions for preventing credit risks for regulatory authorities,bond issuers,and investors are proposed as follows: regulatory authorities should improve the credit rating system and strengthen institutional construction;Bond issuers should enhance their core competitiveness,adjust their business structure,and improve their own credit risk management system;Investors need to have a comprehensive understanding of the company’s information,choose bonds that are affordable based on their own economic situation,and be prepared to adjust their investment strategies at any time. |
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