The Study On Applicability Of Macroscopic Indicator Vulnerability To A Small-scale Region

There are two kinds of earthquake disaster loss assessment modes widely used at present. One is the traditional inventory methodology according to which a relatively more precise assessment results can be obtained. While a detailed classified database of the facilities and structure must be available in advance. In addition, the vulnerability of facilities and structure change in region which implicates new vulnerability models should be done for a new region. This limited the application of inventory methodology to a large-scale region. Another approach is to assess the losses by employing a macroscopic indicator, gross domestic product, or GDP to represent the social wealthy which has been developed by Chen Yong et al (1991). This approach is simple and easy to apply especially in convenience of basic data update according to public regional economic annual report. The approach has been successfully been used to assess the losses due to earthquakes in global and national scales. But more researches should be done to approve if it can be used to the region in a more small space scale. It can be sure if the applicability is proved to be true, the approach will be widely used in earthquake losses prediction and quick assessment. The main aim of the paper is focused on research of macroscopic indicator vulnerability applicability to the relative small scale region through such researches on the re-establishment of new models of macroscopic indicator vulnerability and life vulnerability, the distribution models of population and GDP in space and time, the comparability of the losses estimated by both the macroscopic indicator vulnerability with inventory methodology in a relative small scale region such as a county or a town as well as comparability of the losses estimated assessed quickly after a destructive earthquake occurs with the losses determined according to the field damage investigation and losses statistics. The research results supposed the usability of the macroscopic loss assessment in a relatively small scale region. Based on the review of the development and the current status of the earthquake damage and losses assessment research and application, the innovative researches have been done as following:1. A new macroscopic earthquake vulnerability model in mainland China are set up. Base on data collection of field earthquake disaster loss investigation, the population and social economical materials of the disaster area of earthquake event occurred since 1989, a new GDP earthquake vulnerability model and life vulnerability model are established by using earthquake intensity instead of the epicentral intensity.2. Macroscopic vulnerability analysis method is proved to be applicable at the county scale. We comparatively analyzed the earthquake disaster loss assessment results from macroscopic-based vulnerability method and from building-based vulnerability inventory methodology (ATC-13) respectively based on the population, GDP and buildings of the counties of the Shandong, Guangdong, Yunnan and Gansu provinces. The results suggest that it is appropriate to compare the earthquake disaster prediction results from macroscopical vulnerability analysis method and inventory methodology.3. Macroscopical vulnerability analysis method is also proved to be applicable at the more smaller scale - town. The population of different towns in Jiangxi Province and GDP are colleted. By building the relation between the population and GDP, the town with GDP data absent were predicted and assessed. In the key earthquake monitoring area in southern Jiangxi, the earthquake disaster loss and prediction of different towns in eight cities or counties were made by using macroscopy-based vulnerability analysis method, which was compared with the earthquake disaster loss and prediction results of same places based on the actual investigation and vulnerability analysis of the buildings in the project of 摇arthquake disaster and loss prediction in eight cities and counties of sounth Jiangxi province? suggesting the comparability of macroscopy-based vulnerability...