Systems Analysis Methods Of Eco-city Plan Based On Complexity And Uncertainty Throry

Urban ecosystem is the carrier of social-economic system and is significant for human's living and producting. Now in condition of multiplicate eco-environmental harassment, how to control the urban ecosystem has been the research focus, which aims at the urban sustainable development. Eco-city plan is one of the effective approachs. In this paper, some results of system science such as Dissipative Structure Theory and uncertain theory are applied to urban ecosystem. Urban ecosystem is qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed to offer information for planning, decision-making and management.Based on the review of Dissipative Structure Theory and Synergetics, qualitative analysis indicats that urban compound ecosystem is a dissipative structure, which is open and far from equilibrium. It is reasonable to apply Dissipative Structure Theory to urban ecosystem. According to the origin five types of entropy can be found in the urban ecosystem, which are component entropy, structural entropy, functional entropy, timing entropy and environmental entropy. Urban sustainable development can be realized by enhancing the self-organization capability in areas as follows: maintaining non-equilibrium state, actively response to variation, stimulating dynamic cooperation and selectively amplifying fluctuation. In the researching field of eco-city index system, the K-mean clustering method and system clustering method are adopted. The data are the statistic of Hunan Province. Results indicate that all the 31 indexes can be classed into 5 classes properly. Principal components analysis indicats that the first principal component can explain the 70% of total variance, which verifies the clustering results. The convenience of practice and expects'advices are integrated to decide the indexes need to be considered in quantitative analysis, which includes 5 indexes: per capita GDP, draining intensity of COD, percentage of reaching the standard of water functional area, urbanization lever and Engel coefficient. The planning contents relate to population, economic development, environmental protection investment and social policy.River system researching aims to resolve three problems. (1) The finite element method is one of the typical methods that are used for numerical water quality modeling of the topographically complicated river. Based on the principle of probability theory the probability density of pollutants is introduced. A new model for the grid size optimization based on the finite element method is developed with the incorporation of the maximum information entropy theory when the length of the gird is given. Combined with the experiential evaluation approach of the flow discharge per unit river width, this model can be used to determine the grid size of the finite element method applied to water quality modeling of the topographically complicated river when the velocity distribution of the river is not given. The calculating results of the application of the model to an ideal river testified the correctness of the model. The mean varience can be ameliorated from 0.012 to 0.0026. In a practical case-the application of the model to the Xingjian River (the Hengyang section of the Xiangjiang River), the optimized width of the grid of the finite element method was 11m when the length is 100m. The sensitivities of H and Q are both less than 1. (2) Variation of Xiang-jiang River water quality are affected by occasional variations of many factors, and the pollutant load of any point is a fluctuant variable. The stochastic simulation of the Xiang-jiang River water quality is performed based on the Monte Carlo simulation, and the risks of the traditional deterministic programming results are analyzed. Furthermore, the variable relationship between the risks levels and the corresponding optimization operating expenses is achieved, which is differ form the past research optimizing the operating expenses under a certain risk level. The results indicate that the predicting results of the traditional deterministic programming are not reliable and the corresponding applies may lead to the practical concentrations of the pollutants in Xiang-jiang River are higher than the corresponding standards, and sometimes the probability becomes too large to be neglected at risk lever 0.4. As far as the stochastic water quality programming is concerned, the optimal operating expenses fall with the increasing of the risk levels generally, but the variety is fluctuant in a certain range rather than smooth. (3) The sorption kinetics of pentachlorophenol (PCP) in sediments (from 8 different lakes, south of China) is studied in batch experiments. The comparison of a radial basis function neural network (RBFN) and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) applied for modeling the sorption behaviors is presented. Although the physical and chemical characteristics are different, the modeling results show that the sorption behaviors of the 8 different sediments are similar. RBFN and ANFIS both can model the sorption behaviors and give predictions of high accuracy, which indicates that the two models reflect the internal principle of the sorption better than the traditional model (Fick's Second Law). Especially, RBFN holds the promise of being able to work under noise conditions to get high accuracy. In conclusion, RBFN is the valid options for modeling the sorption kinetics of PCP in the lake sediments. But to get the higher accuracy, the training/checking data should be more accurate, because the decline of the accuracy of the training/checking data affects the outputs of the models to the same extent. The individual changes of the three different inputs (the concentration of PCP in the aqueous phase, the reversible fraction and the irreversible fraction) affect the modeling results to a similar extent, from which we may infer that the sorption kinetics of PCP in these sediments are affected by all the three facts rather than only by the concentration of PCP in the aqueous phase.According to the self-organization modeling idea of dissipative structure theory, we attempt to make out the self-organization model of population variety in urban areas with the migration between urban areas under consideration. Furthermore, the solution and typical results of the model are discussed. In the application of the model in Changsha, population varieties of nine areas in Changsha for the future are predicted and some related conclusions are made. In the recent future, population will centralize to the urban areas espicall to Yuhua area.On the base of the models aforementioned the model system of urban ecosystem is brought forward, which describes the system with only a few variables: population, production value, resource quantity and waste product. The model system is consisting of 7 models: population model, resource model, industry model, agriculture model, third industry model, resource assign modle and waste modle. The interaction within the system embodied by the paramenters make it possible to control the coordinated development to the urban resource-system. The result of its application reflects the real situation well. The shortcoming of the model system is the applying difficulty. How to quantity the parameters and resolve the model are not informed, which should to be researched in the future. The model is abbreviated and applied to Hunan Province. The gross of domestic garbage in the cities of Hunan Province is forecasted. The forecast outcome indicates the new model has the following characteristics: simple structure, excellent applicability and accurate forecast outcome.The super entropy produce criterion is a good tool to judge the system's abrupt change from a lower grade to a higher one. In this paper the entropy of the urban industry-environment system is defined. An example of its application is carried out in Baiyin area, Gansu Province. The super entropy produce criterion reflects the real developmental process of the system. The small investment had brought up serious environmental pollution, which was the main obstacle of industry sustainable development in this area.In the field of optimization, the water resource-environment system is researched as the demonstration of urban ecosystem. According to the ever-present uncertainty, the two stage pragramming model is introduced into the water resource-environment system. Interval parameters are employed to describe the variables with little distribution information. Stochastic parameters are employed to describe the variables with stochastic distribution information. Stochastic parameters are employed to describe the variables with stochastic distribution information. Fuzzy parameters are employed to describe the variables with membership grade information. Subsequently the interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IFTSP) model is presented. The IFTSP method can incorporate pre-defined water policies directly into its optimization process and can readily integrate inherent system uncertainties expressed not only as possibility and probability distributions but also as discrete intervals directly into its solution procedure. The application of this model indicates that water supply ability is terrible insufficient in Xiang Xi Autonomous Prefecture. The water supply of agricultural unit is insufficient even when the river flows at average lever. In 2010, the allocation objects of municipal and industial units can reach their upbound, but the allocation objects of agricultural unit can only reach it lowerbound. The whole system net income varies in interval [70.7 325.11] hundred million yuan corresponding to the system reliability varying in interval [0.0493 0.9742]. If the rivers flow is known, different decision makers with different optimistic levers can get different choice according to the system net income and related system reliability offered by IFTSP model.For the hugeness and complexity of urban ecosystem, the research work has just begun. Although the researching frame has been built, the results are not perfect. For example, the river water quality has not incorporated into the urban ecosystem model, and the parameter and resolving problems are not studied. Although the super entropy produce criterion of industry-enviornment system and IFTSP model of water resource-environment system are put forward, the related model of urban ecosystem has not been completed. In the future, much more researching should be done to enrich the theories and techniques of urban ecosystem.