| Environmental impact assessment is a central link of the study on sustainable development measurement.The study on the environmental impact assessment in China has witnessed rapid development in recent years,a result of the implementation of the Environmental Impact Assessment Law of the People's Republic of China that came into practice in 2003,the proposal of the view of scientific development,and the campaign for the construction of an environment-friendly society.Considering the implementation of the overall land utilization planning will possibly exert a huge influence on the environment,the study on the strategic environmental impact assessment of the overall land utilization planning has become one of the hot topics in this field.This will be of great practical significance to enriching the environmental impact assessment contents in China,reducing the negative influences of the planning on environment from the origin,and making the decisions scientifically.The study on the strategic environmental impact assessment on the overall land utilization planning conduct by Chinese scholars in recent years still remains at the stage of exploration.The ecological footprint model, a key area of the study on the sustainable development measurement at home and abroad, provides an important theoretical foundation and approach to the study on the strategic environmental impact assessment.However,the practice by applying the ecological footprint model to the environmental impact assessment of the overall land utilization planning is still low in quantity,and still remains at the stage of exploration,calling for further improvement and perfection.To overcome the disadvantages of the ecological footprint model itself as well as the disadvantages when it is used to the study on the strategic environmental impact assessment of the overall land utilization planning,this paper uses the ecological footprint theory and method, builds the cultivated land productive ecological footprint model based on "local hectare",and applies this model to the study of the environmental impact assessment of the single land planning objective - the cultivated land of Nanyang City.The assessment areas include the temporal and spatial changes and the influencing factors with respect to the implementation of the strategic objectives set by the current cultivated land planning by Nanyang City,the analysis of the extent and possibility that the expected ecological effect under the cultivated land strategic objectives of the current planning are realized,and the assessment and selection of the schemes for the predicted objectives of the new round of the compilation and revision of the overall cultivated land protection planning.It needs special emphasis that when this paper is completed, the Outline for National Overall Planning for Land Utilization(Draft)is about to be sent to the State Council for examination and approval,while the new round of the revision work of the overall land utilization by local governments is slow,and Nanyang City has not adjusted the base year of the special study on the near round of the compilation and revision of the overall land utilization planning to 2006 from 2004.Consequently,this study will still use 2004 as the base year of the planning,the 1997-2004 period as the period of implementation of the current planning,and the 2005-2020 period as the influence period of the new round of planning.The specific methods and research results of this paper are as follows:(1)To overcome the disadvantages of the world hectare-based traditional ecological footprint model,including the low calculation precision and the distortion of policy enlightenment,this paper builds the cultivated land ecological footprint model based on the "local hectare".This model excludes the balance factor,and the output factor is determined on the basis of the average productivity of the local cultivated land instead of the output factor in the traditional ecological footprint model.The model doesn't get the value from the average productivity of the world cultivated land.And the ecological capability of cultivated land is calculated on the basis of the strategic cultivated land targets and the data about the implementation of such targets,The traditional ecological footprint model is based on the human consumption and used to assess the level of the sustainable development of a region.Whereas the cultivated land ecological footprint model in this paper is based on the cultivated land output and used to assess the level of the sustainable development of cultivated land protection,which fully reflects the characteristics that the overall land utilization planning aims at the protection of land,and measures the pressure on the resource environmental system of the land in the perceptive of land.(2)This paper uses the "local hectare"-based cultivated land production ecological footprint model to conduct the analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution and the spatial difference with regard to the cultivated land ecological footprint during the implementation period of the current planning of Nanyang City,as well as the comparative analysis against the improvement assessment under the traditional models.During the implementation period of the current overall land utilization planning,the cultivated land ecological footprint of Nanyang City showed a fluctuant upward trend,while its cultivated land ecological capability indicated a downward trend,indicating an obvious conflict between the cultivated land ecological supply and demand.From 1997 to 2004,Nanyang's cultivated land ecological footprint grew up by 33%,while the demand for the cultivated land yield from both inside and outside the city strengthened,which put much pressure over the cultivated land protection.At the same time,the ecological capability of the cultivated land reduced by 2.15%.Thus,to improve the ecological capability and increase the effective cultivated land output areas is one of the key means for the cultivated land protection of Nanyang in future.Cultivated land utilization took on a productive ecological deficits both temporally and spatially,showing that Nanyang contributes a lot to its local agricultural development and food safety.Therefore,the situation about the cultivated land protection is not very optimistic to ensure the regional food safety:The ecological footprint change of crop field has a less influence over that of cultivated land.The cultivated land biological capacity per capita keeps falling and the biological deficit per capita is rising,indicating the population growth worsened the cultivated land ecological capability and the extent of the biological sustainability of cultivated land utilization.Thus Planned Birth policy should be enhanced of Nanyang City.The more undeveloped the industrial economy of a county(city,district)is,the more ecological footprint for the unit GDP will need,and the more it will rely on the agricultural economy,and vice versa. Every county(city,district)slightly differs from others in terms of the cultivated land biological difference.The extent of the biological sustainable utilization of cultivated land shows a decreasing trend in the both temporal distribution while the spatial distribution is relatively uneven.According to the comparative analysis against the assessment results under the traditional biological footprint models,the "local hectare"-based cultivated land productive biological footprint model can effectively enhance the precision of the calculation of the cultivated land biological footprint of Nanyang City,and the enlightenments for the cultivated land protection policies of Nanyang City will be more reasonable in line with the calculation results,and highly accord with the national cultivated land protection policies.Therefore,the author believes that the improved model is more reasonable,and can be used to the analysis of the extent of the realization of the biological effects of the cultivated land strategic objectives set by the current planning of Nanyang City as well as the possibility of realization,and the biological footprint assessment in determining the estimated objective for the cultivated land possession under the new round of land utilization planning.(3)The paper uses the "local hectare"-based cultivated land productive biological footprint model to analyze the extent of the realization of the biological effects of the cultivated land strategic objectives set by the current planning of Nanyang City as well as the possibility of realization.Nanyang has basically realized its cultivated land planning target in the present planning year(2000),but till 2004,the ecological sustainable development capability dropped down.In 2000,both the ecological deficits and ecological capability broke through the cultivated land planning target of Nanyang,but not very much.The actual cultivated land ecological sustainable index is a little lower than the target.In general,it realized the target to a high extent in 2000,but the index of 2004 is 16.80%lower than that of 2000,and 16.70%lower than the actual index of 2000.At this point,the ecological sustainable index of Nanyang City's cultivated land utilization from 2000 to 2004 fell down rapidly.It's difficult to achieve the target of the cultivated land planning in present planning year (2010).Till 2010,the ecological deficits are predicted to increase 2.87%,the ecological capability to drop 4.40%,and the sustainable index to decrease 3.21%.If according to the cultivated land utilization development trend,it's impossible to achieve the effectiveness of 2010 planning target and it's tough for cultivated land ecological protection.(4)The correlation analysis and Grey Relational modeling mechanism are used to find out seven main factors which affects Nanyang's cultivated land ecological capability:gross output value of agriculture,vegetable output of unit area,multiple crop index,population,cultivated land area,urban population and sown areas of farm crops.After the mergence of these factors, the key ones are cultivated land areas,cultivated land quality,planting structure and areas and population.From the above four factors,this paper analyzes the main reasons.As to the cultivated land areas,it's hard to maintain the cultivated land quantity due to a sharp decrease in the quantity of cultivated lands;weak cultivated land protection and it's hard for cultivated land's increase and decrease target realization;and terrible illegal encroachment and it's not prompt for cultivated land protection dynamic monitor.As to the cultivated land quality aspect, the dynamic balance of the total cultivated land quantity emphasizes on the quantity balance instead of quality balance;the division of basic cropland protection zones is not reasonable;the Input Output Ratio is low,and the production is not effective;and soil and water loss is bad,soil pollution is getting worse.As to the planting structure and areas,the growth of planting areas of economic crops threatens food safety;and the increase of multiple crop indexes raises the planting strength but removes fertilizer from soil.As to population,population is going up while cultivated land per capita keeps going down;the urban population is increasing more rapidly and the urban construction keeps expansion.For the above problems,this paper gives suggestion for the new round of the compilation and revision of the overall cultivated land protection planning of Nanyang.As to the aforesaid problems,this paper proposes the suggestions on the countermeasures to protect the cultivated land under the new round of planning by Nanyang City.1.Quantitative protection:a)Strictly control the occupancy of cultivated land for non-agricultural construction, and improve the extent of the extensive utilization of land;b).Link the increase in the land use for urban construction with the treatment of the land use for rural construction;c)Guide and regularize the adjustment of the agricultural structure,and increase the quantity of the supplementary cultivated land used for the adjustment of the agricultural structure;d)Strengthen the land development,treatment,re-reclamation and supplement,and realize the surplus between the supplement of land and the occupancy of land;and e)Build the cultivated land quantity protection dynamic monitoring system,and strengthen the penalty for the illegal occupancy of cultivated land.2.Qualitative protection:a)Establish the inspection and acceptance for cultivated land supplement,and realize the improvement of the quality of the cultivated land supplement;b)Strictly protect the basic farmland quantity,and reasonably improve the capacity of the basic tillable land;c)Conduct the grading of the cultivated land quality,and carry out the control over the purpose of rural land in the urban-rural intersecting regions;d)Improve the cultivated land quality and strengthen the biological environmental protection to realize the sustainable development of agriculture.3.Optimization of planting structure:Optimize the planting structure and improve the crop yield;4.Improvement of farming system:Improve the plating system,increase the technical input in the farmland farming technologies,and improve the extent and efficiency of utilization of the cultivated land.5.Population control:Vigorously control the population growth,and coordinate the relationship between the population and land.(5)This paper conducts the study on the prediction of the possession of the cultivated land under the new round planning of Nanyang,builds the dual selection mechanism based on the restraint standard for the prediction objectives of the possession of the cultivated land as well as the analysis of the ecological footprint of the cultivated land to select the optimal prediction schemes,and puts forwards the measures to safeguard the cultivated land in the new planning period of Nanyang City.First,the paper sets up the restriction mechanism for the prediction objective of the quantity of cultivated land possession under the new round planning of Nanyang,and determines the quantity should be no less than 944086.50hm~2 in 2010 and no less than 875587.50hm~2 in 2020 under the mechanism.Second,it uses four cultivated land possession prediction schemes to predict the possession,and such schemes are respectively based on reservation,based on the food safety policy,based on our country's cultivated land protection policy and based on the social and economic development strategy.Then,it also compares the prediction results from the quantity control and ecological sustainable constraint according to the target and weighs out the best cultivated land ecological footprint as based on the reservation method.The prediction result generated from the reservation method-based prediction scheme estimates the quantity figures are respectively 956962.16hm~2 and 941343.77hm~2 in 2010 and 2020.After It means that the cultivated land areas will increase by 3102.67hm~2 during the planning period,and realize the balance between cultivated land supply and demand.After the rigid indicator for exiting cultivation is deducted,the area of the cultivated land will increase 3102.67hm~2 in the planning period,and realize the overall surplus of the cultivated land.Last,the paper proposes the measures to secure the implementation the protection of the cultivated land of Nanyang City in the aspects of the policy and legal system security,the organizational security,the technical security,the system security,and the funding security.(6)Issues for further study include pushing ecological footprint assessment for different land utilization targets,enhancing the temporal sequence prediction study under various scenarios,making the cultivated land ecological footprint environmental impact assessment study based on the element method and the input-output analysis method,improving the target constraint mechanism study for the ecological footprint,conducting the study on the method to break down the cultivated land preservation quantity based on the ecological footprint,and carrying out the study on the land utilization planning and various land utilization environmental impact assessments in combination with other assessment methods and the GIS technologies.
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