Research Of Reliability Evaluation With Warning Mechanism And Its System Dynamic For Mine Ventilation System

There are lots of historical mine accidents happened and fatality experiences inthe worldwide main coal production counties due to coal mining activities. Currently,China has been undergoing the critical stage with high frequency of mining accidents,high casualties and property damages. According to the statistics, Although thenumber of coal mine fatalities has been kept decline since the year of2003, it stilltakes up to70%of all fatalities all over the world.Among all systems to consist of the coal mine, the mine ventilation system isdefinitely an important subpart. It is a typical, dynamic system which can keep a longtime and stable running state, and is also significant for improving the anti-disasterability, optimizing the comprehensive safety production ability, promoting the miningcompany's profit and guaranteeing our country's energy security s strategy.Making the whole producing process safety as a starting point, based on thedifferent service sections of the mine ventilation system, the dissertation hasperformed the research works in the following four subjects:Research on the systemic reliability allocation during the mine ventilationsystem design stageThe reliability allocation is the first and also the key step in a reliability designwork. The dissertation did the research work of the reliability allocation applicationin mine ventilation system. Under the condition of ensuring the whole reliability ofthe system, the reliability allocation for each subsystem can be comprehensively,unified and reasonably determined based on the considerations including technicallevel, complicated grade, importance and working environment, etc. The fuzzymathematics technology is used in this allocation application and its optimization. Thecorresponding software is also developed in this research effort.The―dynamic‖random simulation method for the reliability assessment ofmine ventilation systemComparing with the traditional analytical assessment method, probabilityassessment method not only can solve the―Curse of dimensionality‖problem inbuilding model, but also consider the load, random failure property of the assessmentobject. Starting from the point of the logical relationship of mission, the mineventilation model is reprogrammed. With using the statistical modeling method tosummary and fit the probability properties and related parameters of the research objects, Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to assess the mine ventilationsystem. The sampling process for the system status can be done based on a largerepeated and random experiments. Then, the reliability evaluation could be finishedvia experimental results analysis.Research on the early warning mechanism of mine ventilation systemThe aim of designing the mine ventilation of early warning mechanism is toidentify the potential hazards before the failure of mine ventilation system and toremind the mine operators to take proper measures to avoid these risks. Thetechniques used in the proposed the early warning mechanism of mine ventilationsystem consisted of two models which are the index selection model and recognizingstatus model are from the data mining theory. Firstly, By using the attribute reductionalgorithm in the Rough Set, the best indexes which can reflect the behavior of mineventilation system can be selected. Then, Support Vector Machine method from thestatistical study theory is used to set up the model of status determination. Finally, theproposed mechanism has been tested by the reality cases, and the results shows thatthe predicted results agrees with the real results. This early warning can provide thetheoretical supports and technology insure with identifying the future running status.Modeling mine ventilation system by system dynamic and correspondingpolicy interferential experimentsThe life-span of mine ventilation system is almost equal to the whole servicetime of a coal mine. The mine ventilation system also includes lots of subsystems.The dissertation in-depth analyzes these subsystems and causalities between them andsetup a system dynamic model of mine ventilation system and finishes demonstrationresearches. Then, starting from the future point, a series of interferential experimentsis designed to explore the relationship between the capital investment and theimprovement of system safety level. Based on these experimental results, suggestionsto insure the long-term mine ventilation safety are proposed from different angles andlevels. In addition, the experimental results also can be used as scientific referenceevidences for mine operators.