Public Emergency Management Research

In recently year public emergencies such as natural disasters, accidents disasters, public sanitation and social securities occur frequently. Facing the outburst and uncertainty of crisis, the existing emergency management system in China is unable to deal with various public emergencies effectively, which means lacking effective risk analysis of public emergencies, lacking operable emergency management decision plan and lacking objective and fair assessment of the emergency capabilities. Therefore, it is urgent to do innovative study on those micro-level problems.Dangerous chemical accident is one typical public emergency, especially in China where dangerous chemical accident has been increasing recently. Due to characteristics of dangerous chemical, it will result in seriously harm to human beings' safety and property. Therefore, according to the four phase's theory of emergency management, taking dangerous chemical accident for example, from emergency preparation, prevention, response and capacity-building four aspects, this paper studies decision issues about management science in micro-level of emergency management. The main contents are listed as follows:1. Analyze transportation risk of dangerous chemical from accident rate estimation and result simulation two dimensions. We use information diffuse theory to estimate the transportation accident rate of dangerous chemical, use GIS to simulate transportation accident result of dangerous chemical and build a five- phase risk management frame which includes risk preparation, recognition, estimation, evaluation and decision.2. Study the time-dependent transportation risk measure model of dangerous chemical, based on which measure the risk value of different route and time in transportation network. Study two types of time-dependent optimal transportation scheduling problems based on risk including two problems under constraint of society acceptance and under constraint of cost and waiting time. 3. Study the evacuation problem of multi-source with the order of priority as well as the capacity constraints in public emergencies. Built dynamic emergency evacuation model of multi-sources, illustrate a novel algorithm idea based on discrete time multi-sources K-shortest route parallel processing of the evacuation process, and design dynamic algorithm. We also study the evacuation problem based on concentration of dangerous chemical aiming at emergency dangerous chemical accident.4. Introduce the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight due to the fuzzy estimate from expert s in emergency capacity evaluation, apply the concept of the rate of self-confidence to improve Delphi for determining the weightiness matrix and bring forward the general procedures based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to evaluate emergency capacity.5. Design emergency management expert decision support system based on ArcGIS of dangerous chemical transportation accident, illustrate the whole organization of the system, introduce main functions of this system and propose a construction of database system.We not only analyze transportation risk of dangerous chemical innovatively with application of GIS, propose dynamic emergency management decision method, but also have breakthroughs in model and algorithm, such as building time-dependent risk measure model on dangerous chemical transportation to expand expected loss risk measure model, and establishing dynamic multi-source emergency evacuation model. This paper will have a significant meaning to prevent and reduce accidents, make rapid and efficient decision on emergency management and protect human beings' safety and property. It also broaden prospect for other types of public emergency study.