| Nowadays, Chinese society is at an important stage of rapid development of economy and urbanization process, and, is at turning point of sustainable development. It is a momentous subject which respect to survival and development of Chinese nation and even humanity that how to make social economy and ecosystem working harmoniously. Ecological Footprint analysis is one of methods of sustainable development assessment which attracts many attentions and has extensive use; it measures human appropriation of ecosystem products and services in terms of the amount of bioproductive land and sea area needed to supply these products and services. It can express quantitatively regional sustainable development situation by comparing humanity demand on ecosystem services and biological capacity that ecosystem could provide, so as to monitor sustainable developmental process and implement sustainable developmental management. This research partially modifed Ecological Footprint methodology, exemplified by Jiangsu Province, aim to perfect Ecological Footprint method and provide a basis for setting goals, identifying options for action, and tracking progress toward stated goals in regional sustainable development.1. Temporal and spatial variation in carbon footprint of farmland ecosystem in Jiangsu ProvinceIn this research, we built a carbon footprint calculation model of farmland ecosystem based on carbon payment balance analysis and the parameter values depended on latest domestic researches, and then analyzed the trends of carbon emission, carbon absorption, and carbon footprint of farmland ecosystem in Jiangsu province from1996to2009. The results showed that the dynamic of crop carbon absorption amount and intensity shaped like a "V", carbon absorption intensity changed in the range of6.04to7.71t·hm-2·a-1. The carbon absorption of Rice and wheat was70%of total crop carbon absorption amount in Jiangsu Province. Carbon emission intensity of farmland input showed a trend of increase from1.43t·hm-2·a-1up to1.88t·hm-2·a-1during the period, the increase rate was higher than that of carbon absorption intensity, and the carbon emission from chemical fertilizer was always dominant. Under the influence of carbon emission and absorption, carbon footprint of farmland ecosystem kept increasing with a fluctuation range of13.68×10to17.56×10hm2, the amount approximated27.0%to36.1%of farm area at the same time, while carbon ecological surplus showed a trend of decrease during the period. In general, carbon emission, carbon absorption and carbon footprint showed a trend of decrease from north to south in Jiangsu Province, the minimum of carbon footprint appeared in Changzhou, while the maximum appeared in Xuzhou, which increased6.62times.2. Change characteristics of energy carbon footprint based on regional land use change in Jiangsu ProvinceIn order to reflect absorbency for CO2of difference kind of regional productive area across-the-board, this study estimated regional land average carbon absorption rate based on regional actual land use change and net primary productivity (NPP) of all kinds of land, and modified the algorithm of energy carbon footprint (ECF). The results showed that average carbon absorption rate of productive land area changed in the range of4.77to5.78t·hm-2·a-1in Jiangsu Province and ECF per capita increased from0.1771hm2to0.4194hm2. Compared with traditional algorithm, the ECF per capita reduced68.5%on average a year, but the amount still overstepped regional burthen ability observably,1.39to3.34times of total area of Jiangsu Province, needed for carbon absorption per year. The relationship between GDP per capita and ECF per capita was remarkable parabola regression and did prove the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, and, they were in the state of gradual increasing relative decoupling. These reflect the dependence of current economic growth on energy consumption gradually reduces and energy utilization efficiency improves. The results of ECF calculated by the improved algorithm could reflect regional environmental pressure by energy consumption more veritably and objectively.3. Change trends of ecological footprint and sustainable development appraisal in Jiangsu ProvinceThe results calculated by traditional ecological footprint (EF) model showed that EF per capita increased by53.20%, from1.5649hm2to1.8266hm2, in recent ten years in Jiangsu. But ecosystem carrying capacity had a little drop, decreasing from0.5727hm2to0.5068hm2, and ecological deficit increased from1.4461hm2to2.5501hm2in Jiangsu Province as the same rate as ecological footprint. Fossil energy land accounted for more than50%of EF per capita, it has become the primary cause of the increasing of EF in Jiangsu Province. It made the growth of EF per capita slow-up obviously during the study that using the improved model of ECF, the amount just increased from1.5649hm2to1.8266hm2, having a growth rate of16.72%, and it decreased from19.9to39.1percents, compared to the traditional method. EF Results calculated by the two methods were both above ecosystem carrying capacity, indicating that biological resources consumed by social economic activities had far beyond ecosystem carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province, at the present time, economic development is based on depletion of natural resources in Jiangsu Province.4. Driving effects of socio-economic factors on ecological footprint in Jiangsu ProvinceBy combining regression analysis, principal component analysis, co-integration analysis, and decoupling analysis, we analyzed the relationships between ecological footprint per capita of Jiangsu and social economic factors, such as GDP per capita, industrialized rate, urbanization rate, fixed investment, Engelian coefficient, total industrial output value and total population. In recent ten years, there were remarkable quadric curvilinear regression relationships between EF per capita and seven socio-economic indicators, and among them, the relationships with industrialized rate and Engelian coefficient had lower dependence. The result of multiple regression analysis and principal component analysis indicated that these socio-economic factors were strong driving force for regional EF per capita. The decoupling index between total ecological footprint per capita and GDP per capita, total industrial output value, and fixed investment were all less than1, showing a visible decoupling state, but the index between energy land and urbanization rate was greater than1after2002, which showing a clear coupling state, indicating that economic gain was less depend on depletion of natural resources, level of resources utilization was higher, rapid growth of urbanization was the leading cause of increasing of EF especially energy carbon footprint in Jiangsu Province. |
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