| As one of the sensitive areas for global climate change, located in China’s southeast coast, Fujian Province is undergoing a period of rapid economic development since1978. In this paper, we calculated carbon emissions of the socio-economic system of Fujian Province, and analyzed the characteristics of carbon emission of Fujian Province though the method of LMDI, also we focused on the impact of demographic factors affecting the carbon emissions by STIRPAT model. We aimed to get the target that was proposed in the climate conference in Copenhagen in2009, to predicted carbon emissions of Fujian Province in2020, and to find low-carbon development strategies. The main conclusions were:(1) From1978to2010, the total carbon emissions of socio-economic system of Fujian Province increased from4,492,100tons to89,888,800tons, and the rate of average annual increase was9.8%; The carbon emissions of energy consumption from8,171,000tons to3,832,600tons with the average annual growth rate of8.87%; The cement carbon emissions increased from659,500tons rose to1,717,800tons, and the average annual growth rate turned out to be12.45%. All of the total carbon emissions, the energy consumption and the produce dominant carbon emissions increased. The coal consumption in energy consumption cabon emissions accounted for more than75%, and the oil consumption accounted for11.94-24.92%. The proportion of carbon emissions of natural gas consumption was the lowest one; the intensity of energy consumption decreased from6.67to of2.28with an amplitude of57.39%.(2) The characteristics of carbon emissions of Fujian Province as follows:The second industrial carbon emissions had the largest proportion (76.45-81.09%), and first industry was the lowest one (2.76-3.89%), besides, the proportion of secondary industry carbon emissions continue to increase. Carbon intensity of the second industrial carbon emissions is one of the main causes for the increase of carbon emissions in Fujian Province. From the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions ranged from1978to2010, Fujian economic growth and carbon emissions are not adapted to the EKC curve, and the economic growth will promote Fujian carbon emissions in the future. From2000to2010, the consumer of carbon emissions significant increased and may be another important reason driving the increase of carbon emissions in Fujian Province.(3) Economies of scale (CY) is the dominant factor to promote Fujian Province carbon emissions, the contribution rate was184.74%, the effect coefficient was0.6089; the population size(CP) had a particularly positive effect, and the effect coefficient was0.0503; the energy intensity (CI) has a significant effect, the contribution rate was-101.70%, the effect coefficient tend to be-0.3352. In conclusion, the intensity of carbon dioxide, Energy Structure (CN) had smaller impacts on carbon emissions, and to improve energy efficiency is a key factor affecting the effectiveness of energy conservation in Fujian Province. (4) Energy carbon intensity (CF) had been undergoing a large variation range form1978to1989, then keeped around zero since1990. As a indicator of unit energy carbon emission, Energy carbon intensity is closely related to both energy consumption structure and energy coefficient, Because the changes of the energy consumption structure and energy carbon emission coefficient of fujian province were not obvious, energy carbon intensity’s explanatory power for energy consumption carbon emissions is very limited.(5) We used a STIRPAT model to research the effects of population size and structure, level of economic development and technological advance on carbon emission in Fujian Province, and the population structure was characterized by population urbanization rate, age distribution of working population and resident household size. The results showed that the effects of household consumption on carbon emission exceed the single effect of population size on carbon emission and trend to be a new increment for the carbon emission in Fujian Province. The influence of demographic change on carbon emissions accounted for21.68%-38.25%, which was higher than the influence of the size of the population (22.80%-28.84%), while the population urbanization influence on carbon emissions accounted for38.25%; Besides the most influential population urbanization effect, the household size changes gained a proportion of33.88%within the whole factors and trended to be the second largest influencing factors in population structure; Beyond that, changes in the age structure of the population also accounted for29.83%. Carbon intensity indicators technological progress in Fujian Province in1978-2010explained only1.82%-9.01%variations, which was much lower than the other variables examined in the model. This paper argue that the CO2intensity (CO2/GDP) reflacts the relationship of economic growth and carbon emissions, it has certain significance of technological. But in the area of economic development rapidly, To explain the impact of technological progress on carbon emissions, the energy intensity could be a readily factor rather than the carbon intensity.(6) According to the emission reduction targets drew on the Copenhagen Conference (2009), we assumed that the carbon intensity could be40%lower than the intensity of the year2005, and the emission gross to the year2020may still maintain a gap of about51,100,600tons. Moreover, there is a budget of about46.16million tons for emission reduction even with the carbon sink of forest and ocean exclude. The emission reduction situation trends to be grim future for Fujian Province.(7) In summary, taking emission reduction and carbon sequestration increasing into account, the low-carbon strategies in Fujian Province should be as follows:focusing on the outline of low-carbon economy and building a good low-carbon promotion system; Moreover, it is significant to strengthen the technical innovation, to address the low-carbon lifestyle, and to strengthen the international and domestic cooperation. To increase the carbon sequestration, we also highlighted the importance of taking advantage of the forest and ocean for improving the capacity of carbon sink. |
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