Study On Influencing Factors Of Carbon Footprint Of Energy Consumption In Tianjin

On the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in2009,Chinese government promised that the carbon emission intensity of China in2020would be reduced by40%-45%compared with the carbon emission intensity in2005.This reflects our sense of responsibility as a big country. However, China is in thestage of rapid development of urbanization, industrialization. So the emissionreduction target would be very challenging. Every province has to carry out positiveactions to achieve the carbon reduction targets. Tianjin is the economic center ofChina, making large carbon emissions. Tianjin carbon emission reduction effect hasimportant implications for the goal of carbon reduction. In this paper, the impacts ofthe carbon footprint of Tianjin factors were intensively analyzed to provide atheoretical basis for Tianjin to establish emission reduction policies. The maincontents are as follows:(1) Influencing factor analysis on Tianjin carbon footprint based on the LMDImethod. First, the accounting of the carbon footprint of Tianjin in2001-2009wasgiven, and then the ecological pressure was calculated and analyzed. Then with LMDImethod, changes of carbon footprint of Tianjin as a whole and34industrial sectorswas decomposed into carbon footprint factor, energy intensity, energy structure,economic structure and economic development as the five factors. According to thefactor decomposition results, the various factors for the changes in the role of thecarbon footprint were determined. The results showed that the economic developmentof Tianjin increased carbon footprint as the most important contributing factor, andenergy intensity was the main inhibiting factor.(2) Factors decomposition of Tianjin Industry energy intensity based on completedecomposition and GFI. According to the conclusion of the previous chapter, theenergy intensity is the main inhibiting factor of carbon footprint in Tianjin. In order toreduce carbon footprint in Tianjin, we should make full use of the inhibition of energyintensity, which needs fully understanding on the impact of influencing factors onenergy intensity. This paper first analyzed the characteristics of CDM and GFI. Andthen the change of energy intensity in Tianjin from the year of2001-2009wasdecomposed into structure share and efficiency share based on CDM, and then thechange of energy intensity was decomposed into technological progress, energy and industrial structures by using the method of GFI. Considering the results of CDM andGFI, for the three major industries, the role of technological progress is the mostimportant contributing factor to the decline in energy intensity, and industrial structureis the main inhibiting factors; and for industry, the effects of the factors on the changein energy intensity in descending order are technical progress, industrial structure andenergy structure.(3) Based on VAR model, dynamic effects of influencing factors of carbonfootprint were analyzed. According to the requirements of the VAR model, thestationary test and cointegration test were used to the carbon footprint as well as thefactors of energy intensity, energy structure and economic structure; after tests werepassed, VAR model of carbon footprint and three influencing factors was set up. Andimpulse response function and variance decomposition method were used to analyzethe long-term dynamic effects of energy intensity, energy structure, the economicstructure to the carbon footprint. The result of the analysis showed that the factors ofenergy intensity, energy structure and economic structure had the strong explanatoryto carbon footprint, with a long-term effect.