Research Of Carbon Intensity Factors And Prediction In Fujian Province

In the current global environmental issues，control and reduction of carbondioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions is an important environment-orientedeconomic policies around the world. This paper makes empirical research on theprediction of the driving factors and the carbon intensity in Fujian.First of all, carbon intensity trends between2004and2012are analyzed inFujian Province. The object of carbon intensity targets in Fujian Province is selectedbased on the introduction of the concept of carbon emissions and the evaluation ofnational greenhouse gas emissions, and according to China’s basic nationalconditions and the actual situation in Fujian province. Carbon emissions and carbonintensity between2004and2012are calculated combining the energy consumptiondata in Fujian province. Besides, trends of carbon emissions and carbon intensity ofFujian Province are analyzed combined with the actual situation in the province.Then, this paper analyzes and decomposes the driving factors of carbonintensity in Fujian Province. Based on the time series data between2004and2012and the "two-stage LMDI" decomposition method, the factors related to carbonintensity generated by energy consumption are decomposed into three respects suchas energy intensity, energy mix and carbon intensity of energy consumption. Further,energy intensity playing a key role in reducing carbon emissions intensity isdecomposed again with the introduction of energy intensity, departmental structure.Research shows that energy consumption intensity is the primary factor affectingcarbon intensity, the factor of energy structure is the second one, and carbonconsumption intensity in industry is the key factor that affects the total energyintensity. Therefore, reducing consumption intensity in industry and improvingenergy efficiency is the most important.What’s more, this paper predicts the carbon intensity of2013-2020in theeconomic development of Fujian Province. Firstly, selecting the influencing factorssuch as energy consumption intensity, energy mix, per capita wealth and population,long-term equation relationship between each factor and carbon emission intensity isestablished with method of co-integration. On this basis, this paper sets the future values of energy intensity between2013and2020with the method of sub-scenarios,and predicts the future value of energy structure in Fujian Province using Markovchain model. At last, this paper predicts the carbon intensity of2013-2020in theeconomic development of Fujian Province and analyzes the results based on STIRPAprediction model of the carbon intensity of Fujian Province, to predict and analyzethe prediction results. The results showed that only the structure of energyconsumption and energy intensity factors have a significant impact on carbonemissions intensity in the long term; To2020, the carbon intensity of FujianProvince, will drop to246tons/million, a decrease of approximate56%comparedto2005, more than40-50%of the indicators proposed by the Chinese government.Finally, on the basis of this analysis, policy recommendations are given.