Study On Models And Algorithms For LNG Storage&Transportation Center Based On Externality Theory

Liquefied Natural Gas, or LNG, as a kind of clean and efficient green energy, has a long-time history in the international, and LNG trade is becoming a new hot spot of global energy markets currently. Since the21th century, with the sustainable and rapid development of national economy, the demand of LNG has increased dramatically, covered around8%proportion in primary energy consumption, and the domestic consumption is expected to reach260billion cubic meters in2015. In China, as a great complement for pipeline gas, LNG makes significance in transformating national energy structure, solving energy shortage and promoting sustained and healthy economic development, energy conservation and emission reduction, and plays an important role to protect the environment. LNG industry is a realistic and feasible option for the development of low-carbon economy and contribution to scientific development.China will usher in the peak of the LNG storage and transportation center construction, but the attendant security risks and social risks have also caused great attention of enterprises and society. On the one hand, LNG storage and transportation center must prevent potential risk caused by itself, for example, leakage, fire and explosion accidents, storage technology&pipeline facilities, manpower&security management, or environmental risk. Through quantitative risk analysis method, this paper estimates the security risk cost to make reasonable decision of LNG location. On the other hand, as the economic subject, enterprises have to undertake the responsibility of environmental pollution prevention and ecological restoration made by its production and operation in location and construction plan of the LNG storage and transportation center. In this paper, in order to achieve environmental internalization of external diseconomy, the author calculates environment&resources cost into product cost.From the perspective of externality theory, the author makes in-depth study on LNG storage and transportation center comprehensive location through taking externality cost into the location model of LNG storage and transportation center introducing quantitative risk assessment into the evaluation of LNG storage and transportation center location rationality. In the whole, this paper has mainly made the following5researches: (1) This paper introduces the research status of LNG storage and transportation center optional location in detail, and focus on the related theoretical models and evaluation methods of LNG storage and transportation center location, laying a theoretical foundation for further study in the following chapters. Using the dynamic measurement method, such as cointegration theory, error correction model, and so on, reveals the effect of the LNG storage and transportation center construction investment on economic growth. Aiming to problem of solving shortage of sufficient strict theory and model to support, for the current domestic LNG future demand forecast is made mostly by some professionals who do some subjective judgment analysis based on experience, this paper introduces the grey dynamic prediction method into LNG demand forecasting, building grey prediction GM (1,1) model to carry on the analysis, in order to make a scientific grasp for LNG future demand trend and fluctuation.(2) This paper puts forward the influencing factors on location of LNG storage and transportation center including investment operation cost and externality cost, and external cost includes security risk cost and environmental cost. The author establishes importance analysis for4risk factors of LNG storage and transportation center based on entropy and grey association theory. What’s more, the author defines the concept of green degree of LNG storage and transportation center site, establishes its green degree evaluation index system, and builds its green degree evaluation model by introducing rough set theory into evaluation system, which can evaluate the environment profit of LNG storage and transportation center location. The conclusions calculated through the model are the followings:investment&operating cost, security risk cost and environmental cost in the corresponding weights of LNG storage and transportation center location are0.6154,0.1620and0.2226respectively. Accordingly, weighting the index weight can get the green degree of each decision scheme.(3) This paper detailed estimates the externality cost of LNG storage and transportation center location. On the one hand, the author puts forward the idea of estimating consequence caused by LNG leakage diffusion, fire and explosion when make security risk cost measurement for LNG storage and transportation center, and establishes hazard consequence econometric model of LNG leakage diffusion, fire and explosion based on the internalization, in order to make quantitative analysis on security risk measurement of LNG storage and transportation center location. On the other hand, the author defines the concept of LNG storage and transportation center environmental cost and scope, analyzes the implementation way, measurement procedure and method of the internalization of environmental cost, and establishes econometric model to measure environmental cost of LNG storage and transportation center based on internalization, which helps to make quantitative analysis on environmental cost measurement of LNG storage and transportation center.(4) Aiming to the lack of theory or practice on the location, which from perspective of social sustainable development to consider its externalities, this paper introduces the basic idea of externalities into the LNG storage and transportation center location. From the perspective of externality theory, this paper proposes to handle security risks and environmental cost by approximate quantitative processing. With consideration of factors above and investment&operating cost, this paper builds a comprehensive location model for LNG storage and transportation center based on externality theory, then applys DPSO algorithm into solving the model. Through empirical analysis, the author makes the following conclusions:when taking externality cost into account in LNG storage and transportation center location, and making quantitative risk assessment based on risk index RI, in a certain extent, we can effectively reduce social externalities and potential hazards of LNG storage and transportation center location, and improve social welfare.(5) This paper also makes additional conclusions and comes out some outlooks in respect to shortage and future direction based on the above research.This paper aims at build a comprehensive optimization model of LNG storage and transportation center, which can minimizing the total cost on the basis of a certain balance between investment&operating cost and externality cost, to achieve the minimization between security risks cost and environmental cost; provide a thought for improving and promoting China’s LNG storage and transportation center’s green development, and determining reasonably the location, layout adjustment and scientific planning of land usage for other major project.