An Empirical Research On The Economic Growth Effect Of Regional Demographic Dividend In China

China's promotion of regional economic growth and coordinated development is a major issue related to the long-term economic and social development. All over the world,both developed and developing countries, as well as emerging market economies, have been eager to focus on China's economic growth and regional economic problems.Especially over the past 30 years of reform and opening-up, China's economy continues to grow rapidly,demographic dividend provides a strong driving force for economic growth, which has caused extensive concern of the academic circles. At present, China has entered a new economic normal which from high growth to moderate growth,the economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend is also facing many challenges.Under this background, the paper discussed how to explore and utilize regional demographic dividend to make positive effect on economic growth and narrow the regional disparity of demographic dividend effect on economic growth. It has very important theoretical value and practical significance.This paper follows the reaearch ideas beginging from observing phenomenon——finding the problem——analysising the problem——solving the problem, seizes the internal logic of regional demographic dividend, launches the research on the economic growth effect of China's demographic dividend. The main contents of each part are arranged as follows:First of all, the introduction part introduces the background and significance of the research, the research content and the structure arrangement, the research methods, the main innovation and the problems that will be studied in the future. Secondly, the paper investigates related and relevant source materials at home and abroad, makes a brief review of the existing literature and points out that the further supplement and improvement. Third, the paper discusses the relevant theories, including population theory, demographic dividend theory and economic growth theory. Fourth, analysis of demographic dividend and economic growth situation, including the analysis of the national demographic dividend and economic growth situation and regional differences of population dividend and economic growth, summing up the main challenges of population dividend to promote economic growth and narrowing the gap of regional economic growth. The fifth part is to establish the theoretical model of the economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend, and to make an econometric analysis of the economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend. Sixth, based on the theoretical model of the economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend,the paper analyzes the convergence of economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend. Finally, Based on the conclusions of the paper, it puts forward relevant policy recommendations of excavating and using regional demographic dividend to promote economic growth and to narrowing the gap of regional economic growth from the demographic dividend effect of economic growth.The conclusion of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1) China's population structure changes greatly, aging of population and few children makes the scale of labor force supply decline, this has futher led to an important factor in the realization of the economic growth effect of regional population dividend in China——the proportion of employed population to the total population to decline. At the same time, the problems in the process of China's foreign trade and urbanization have brought serious challenges to China's regional demographic dividend to promote economic growth and reduce regional economic growth differences from the population dividend.(2) The real meaning of the demographic dividend in China refers to per capita educational human capital, per capita health human capital and proportion of employed population to total population is under the conditions of foreign trade and urbanization to bring economic growth source. We can not limit the effect of economic growth from China's regional demographic dividend in a specified period of time. That is to say, the focus on the economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend in our country should not be on the duration of economic growth effect of regional population dividend,it should be on the basis of understanding the situation of demographic dividend and economic growth, put the focus on exploring the inner mechanism of the positive effect of regional population dividend growth and how to excavate and utilize the regional demographic dividend to promote economic growth and narrow the regional disparity of demographic dividend effect on economic growth.(3) The global spatial correlation test of China's 30 provincial regions Moran 'I value indicates that: 1990-2014, there is a significant positive spatial correlation between China's demographic dividend and economic growth. The local spatial correlation test Moran's I scatter plots shows that most of the provincial regions in our country are located in the first quadrant of the high - high (H-H) gathering area and the low - low(L-L) cluster in the second quadrant.(4) In the past literature,children's dependency ratio, old age dependency ratio and total dependency ratio was used to measure the demographic dividend to do research on economic growth effect of regional population dividend in China, in fact, there are a lot of limitations. Using per capita education human capital, health human capital per capita and the proportion of employed population to total population to describe the demographic dividend index, it can make up for the lack of economic growth effect of demographic dividend, which is usually used as a measure of population dividend.(5) Based on the theory of economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend, set two kinds of spatial weight matrix which include the geographical proximity and geographical distances of, using the spatial lag model, to make an empirical analysis on the economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend, the study found that: the proportion of employed population to total population,per capita capital and per capita education human capital has a significant role in promoting economic growth, it is the three main factors to realize the economic growth effect of regional population dividend, per capita health human capital and foreign trade have a positive impact on economic growth in China.(6) 1990-2014, China's regional economic growth has significant absolute ? and conditional ? convergence, under the assumption that the initial conditions of the region are the same, regional economic growth will converge to the same steady state level; under the assumption that the initial conditions of the region are different, regional economic growth will converge to their steady-state level.(7) There is lagrge differences in the initial conditions of the provincial economic growth in China,so there are some limitations in the absolute ? convergence test. The conditional ? convergence which take the initial conditions of the region as a different to study the convergence of the economic growth effect of regional population dividend in China, the conclusion of the study is more accord with the objective reality of the economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend in China, it has strong practical significance.The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) Using the new index to scientifically and accurately measure the demographic dividend. (2 ) Set up a theoretical model of the economic growth effect of regional population dividend in China,use spatial econometric analysis technique, set up the spatial weight matrix of geographical proximity and geographical distance,to make a comprehensive,profound and realistic study on the economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend. (3 )Considering the importance of China's regional economic growth and coordinated development, it based on the theory of economic growth effect of regional population dividend in China, set up spatial panel data model, makes an empirical analysis on the convergence of economic growth effect of regional population dividend in China,expands the existing literature.