| Iron ore is the most important production material of iron and steel industry.The strategic value of iron ore is more obvious for China,which is in the middle period of industrialization and the critical period of industrial transformation.The iron and steel industry plays a very important role in the Chinese economic structure,security of supply of iron ore has very important significance for stable operation and development of Chinese steel industry,sustainable development of China overall economic and social stability will play a decisive role.Chinese process in the production of long steel iron,crude steel production in 90% from smelting of iron ore,and the existing domestic iron ore resources(ore production)low grade,high development costs,forcing a large number of imported iron ore China iron and steel enterprises,the whole industry external dependence is rising year by year.Especially after the twenty-first Century,more than 80% of the iron ore imported from abroad(imported ore)has become the norm.At the same time,overseas iron ore low-cost monopoly supply pattern has also formed.China’s iron ore import resources are too concentrated,80% of imports of ore are controlled by international mining giants,China’s iron ore imports are closely related to the pattern of international trade.In 2003,Baosteel joined the iron ore negotiation team as a representative of China’s iron and steel enterprises,and China’s iron ore prices were in line with international standards.Since 2013,the price of iron ore has fallen sharply and accompanied by dramatic fluctuations,while China’s iron ore imports have also changed significantly with price fluctuations.The future uncertainty of the potential risk of the international iron ore trade pattern and the price is increasing due to the drama,volatility,Chinese price of iron ore supply interruption risk is difficult to avoid.Therefore,to explore the influence of science Chinese iron ore price of the international iron ore trade pattern changes and price fluctuations,to quickly find effective protection of China iron ore resources sustainable and stable supply strategy is imminent.According to the Ministry of land and resources of geological survey project objectives and tasks based on the topic,Chinese iron ore supply security situation,to change the most obvious pattern of trade and price as the object of analysis in the international iron ore market,the international iron ore trade pattern and price volatility as the starting point,in a large number of empirical investigation and on the basis of analyzing the methods of literature research,theoretical analysis,comparative study,prediction model and the combination of empirical and normative,to calculate a series of key indicators,describe the international iron ore trade pattern and the price fluctuations of Chinese imports of iron ore,and then put forward China iron ore import strategy system.This article mainly from the international iron ore trade pattern of evolution of wave characteristics and influence,the international iron ore price factors and the international iron ore trade pattern evolution of China iron ore imports,the international iron ore price fluctuations on China iron ore imports effect and so on several aspects,using theories and methods of international trade theory,complex network model spatial interaction model,in-depth research on the influence on China iron ore imports in the international iron ore market changes.The thesis consists of seven chapters.Each chapter tries to be able to make reasonable connections,and the specific contents include:The first chapter is the introduction.This chapter is mainly from the background,significance and methods of research,and then through a lot of reading literature,on the domestic and foreign related research about the international iron ore trade pattern,the international price of iron ore and iron ore imports Chinese strategy review,describes the current status of the international iron ore market,iron ore imports and Chinese strategy.Finally,the research ideas and the writing framework of the thesis are put forward,and the main innovation points are put forward.The second chapter analyzes the evolution of international iron ore trade pattern and China’s trade status.This chapter analyzes the international iron ore market from a macro point of view,introduces the complex network theory to the international trade of iron ore,and illustrates the international trade data of iron ore used.At the same time will build two types of complex networks,is a global world international trade relations from 2004 to 2016 the global iron ore trade based on complex network,the other is formed from a common national commodity import or export to a country based on common,indirect international iron ore trade competition in the network.And the industrial structure similarity coefficient is applied to the analysis of international trade,the international trade competition coefficient between countries was calculated.The results show that China,Germany,South Africa,Holland and the United States have a significant intermediary role in the international trade of iron ore.For the iron ore international trade network,there are mainly 4-5 societies.The formation of iron ore trade in various countries is not obvious,the overall trade is more closely,showing a more globalized development,the trend of regional collectivization is more obvious.The third chapter analyzes the influence of the evolution of international iron ore trade pattern on China’s iron ore import.Based on the analysis of the evolution of the international iron ore trade pattern and the status of China’s iron ore trade,the international iron ore trade is studied by the spatial interaction model.According to the spatial interaction model,the influencing factors are divided into the thrust factors of the exporting countries and the pulling forces of the importing countries,as well as the resistance factors in terms of the geographical distance and the economic distance.Through the construction of the geographical distance weighting matrix and the economic distance weighting matrix,the influence factors on the iron ore trade are estimated.After that,this chapter divided the import country’s influence factor into demand factor and trade factor,and analyzed Chinese iron ore import.Through the previous research methods,the demand for iron ore demand in China is predicted,and the future trade situation is divided into three scenarios to estimate the future import volume.The empirical study found that demand factors are the main factors influencing the import of iron ore trade,trade factors in the importing country has a strong effect on the iron ore trade,the factor of exporters reserves is an important factor affecting the export of iron ore,the level of technology and trade factors had little effect on iron ore exports,geographical distance with the iron ore trade exists U relations,economic distance and iron ore trade has reversed U relationship.Within a certain range,the greater the geographical distance,the smaller the iron ore trade between the two countries;the greater the economic distance,the greater the iron ore trade between the two countries will be.The fourth chapter is about the influence factors of international iron ore price fluctuation.This chapter analyzes the international iron ore market from the microscopic point of view,focusing on the international iron ore prices,and uses the vector autoregression method to verify the influencing factors of the international iron ore price fluctuation.It is found that under the index pricing mechanism,the relationship between the two sides of the iron ore supply and demand is weakened,and the profit relationship is more complex.The significant influence of the financial capital is the most prominent characteristic of the index pricing mechanism.The iron ore market is a typical bilateral monopoly market,the pricing mechanism in the early year,steel companies and mining companies in pricing by virtue of their monopoly power to seek certain monopoly interests,so as to ensure the smooth operation of the pricing mechanism.However,in the index pricing period,the emerging market represented by China has been low in the market of the steel industry,thus weakening the bargaining power of the demand side.The fifth chapter analyzes the influence of international iron ore price fluctuation on China’s iron ore import.This chapter uses Granger causality method to test the influence of international iron ore price fluctuation on China’s iron ore import.The monthly data for the selection of imports of iron ore,iron ore prices,domestic ore production and other statistical indicators,through qualitative analysis and Granger causality test,comprehensive judge the relationship between the changes of the international pricing mechanism of iron ore and iron ore imports.The test results show that: from 2011 to 2016,China frequent short-term fluctuations in iron ore imports;the international iron ore pricing mechanism caused by the change of the iron ore price shock is the leading cause China iron ore imports fluctuations,short-term fluctuations will China future iron ore imports in the period continued.The sixth chapter is the policy suggestion of optimizing China’s iron ore import strategy.This chapter first summarizes the risks faced by China’s iron ore imports from four aspects: import sources,import markets,import transportation and import management.Then,the empirical results obtained from this paper include policy recommendations for optimizing China’s iron ore import strategy from such aspects as increasing technological innovation,improving industrial concentration and paying attention to the construction of financial markets.The seventh chapter,research conclusions and prospects.This chapter summarizes the conclusions of this study,and makes a prospect for further research.The impact of China on imports of iron ore in the international iron ore market,this paper considers two key issues of the international iron ore market changes: the international iron ore trade patterns and the international iron ore price fluctuations.Based on the analysis of international iron ore trade pattern evolution analysis,the impact of the international iron ore price fluctuation influence factor analysis and two of Chinese imports of iron ore,and then put forward the policy suggestions to optimize the system of imported iron ore Chinese strategy.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:1.quantitative analysis of the impact of international iron ore market changes on China’s iron ore imports from different perspectives.Traditional research usually takes into account the influence of the international trade pattern or international price on the import of iron ore in China.Because of the different views,the final results are quite different.The international iron ore trade pattern and the change of the international iron ore price fluctuation double perspective based on using different methods of the international iron ore market changes on Chinese imports of iron ore,which provides a new way for the research China iron ore import trade.2.introduce the concept of economic distance in the traditional gravity model,and use the spatial interaction model to investigate the two-way flow in the international iron ore trade.Traditional gravity models usually consider the ratio of trade flow and geographical distance of the two countries.Because of the uneven distribution of iron ore resources,the traditional gravity model can not explain the international iron ore trade problem.This paper introduces the concept of economic distance in the traditional gravity model,in order to ensure the reliability and stability of the results,together with the effects of geographical distance;the traditional studies usually consider the impact on the iron ore trade importer or exporter,this paper uses the two-way flow of spatial interaction model to investigate the international iron ore trade.3.,considering the influence of international price fluctuation on China’s iron ore import,the factors of pricing mechanism are taken into account.The traditional research often consider the degree of impact on iron ore price fluctuations from the supply and demand,finance,special events and other aspects,this paper introduces the pricing mechanism to change the pricing mechanism and quantitative factors,the change of China iron ore imports. |
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