Optimizing Allocation Of Marine Emergency Resources Under Dynamic Demand

Emergency resources are the material basis of emergency rescue.Allocation of emergency resources is an important part of emergency resource management.In recent years,marine emergencies occur frequently in China.Due to the complicated marine environment and the evolution of marine emergencies,the consequence the marine emergencies bringing about is serious.In the face of severe maritime security situation,it is particularly important to strengthen the construction of emergency support capacity,to develop a reasonable emergency resource allocation plan.This paper takes marine emergency rescue as background,combining the provisions and requirements of the national marine emergency allocation of resources,considering the dynamic characteristics of emergency resources and the particularity of the reserve environment.Based on the introduce of marine emergency resources allocation mechanism under dynamic demand,the dynamic demand of emergency resources for accident areas is analyzed,the reasonable emergency resources quantites for reserve bases are determined.To ensure the continuity of emergency resources allocation,the control over emergency resources quantites is studied from a perspective of dynamic supply.The main contents are as follows:1)The basic theory of emergency resources allocation is analysed.The meaning of marine emergency and emergency resources in this dissertation is defined.Based on the analysis of marine emergencies and sources and distribution for emergency resources,the content of marine emergency resources optimal allocation is given.The emergency resources allocation system is described detailedly from the aspects of subjects,contents,stages,requests.Based on the analysis of the influence of dynamic demand conditions and the features of emergency resources allocation under dynamic demands,the processes of marine emergency resources allocation under dynamic demands is summarized.2)Following the train of general the first,the dynamic demand for accident areas is analyzed.Firstly,considering factors such as the frequency of emergency risk at sea waters,the risk degree of sea waters,climate and environment,the dynamic demand forecast model based on wavelet neural network is established,which could forecast the total demand dynamic level of the whole area.According to the distribution of marine emergencies,with the minimum circle covering thought and spatial clustering analysis technique,the whole area can be divided into several accident areas.Then the demand weight and the dynamic demand of emergency resources for those accident areas can be calculated.Finally,take Shandong marine area as an example,analyzes the dynamic demand of emergency resource in the next year.3)Based on the research of emergency resources allocation mechanism in reserve bases when the demand of accident areas is dynamic,the principles,objectives and constraints of emergency resources allocation are clearly indicated.Then the applicability of robust optimization method to solve emergency resources allocation is proposed.To minimize the total time and total loss of emergency resources allocation in reserve bases as the goals,the model of marine emergency resources allocation in reserve bases is built up.Researching on the the linear relationship between the transportation volume,compensation amount and dynamic demand,the affine functions of decision variables and uncertain parameters are constructed.By robust optimization,considering the demand changes and the risk preference of decision makers,for the case that there are uncertain parameters in both objective function and the constraint conditions,two kinds of robust control parameters are introduced.Thus,we can get the corresponding robust model of emergency resources allocation.By the dual theorem,the corresponding robust model can be transformed into Linear programming problem which is easy to solve.In this way,the robust optimization model of emergency resources allocation is set up.Then the reliability of robust optimization solutions is analyzed,the NSGA-II algorithm to solve the model is given.Finally,taking Shandong marine oil dispersant allocation as example,by matlab7.0,we can get the allocation robust optimization plan under different demand disturbances and robust control levels.The allocation effect,imput and robust optimization solution reliability are discussed.The changing laws of the allocation objectives and demand disturbances,robust control levels are listed.4)The influence resource consumption and inventory losses acting on emergency resources quantities is described.Based on the analysis of the control over emergency resources quantites in reserve base,the goal and content of control emergency resources quantites is described.According to the characteristics of emergency resources consumeing in reserve base,the emergency resources is classificated.Then,the deteriorating inventory theory and model is expounded,the idea of control over emergency resources quantites based on deteriorating inventory for different kinds of emergency resources raise up.For reference of inventory theory,this paper makes improvement of the traditional economic order quantity model.Thus,the control cost function for general emergency resources is constructed.By using the method of forward iterative approximation,the order cycle and the optimal order quantity can be calculated.For professional emergency resources,considering the inventory loss and the out of stock loss,by the stochastic inventory model[s,S],the control cost function for general emergency resources is constructed.The optimal upper and lower limit of inventory can be find though the function.In order to verify the validity and rationality of the control strategy over emergency resources quantites in reserve base,two examples are raised.The change laws between dynamic control strategy and inventory loss rate,control cost are given.Exploring the allocation optimization of marine emergency resources under dynamic demand can help to make scientific initial allocation plan for allocation centers,to develop reasonable dynamic control strategies of emergency resources allocation for ensuring a continuous supply of emergency resources.It’s beneficial to improve the ability of natianl water emergency relief protection,to provide the decision references for marine emergency managers.