Study On Supply Risk Propagation Mechanism In Multi-layer Network Of International Steel Trade

Steel is a basic industrial raw material,and it has a wide range of applications in all areas of production and life in the society.Its production and consumption in the world wide are not evenly distributed.Thus,countries make the international steel trading to ensure the normal operation.Due to the input-output relationship between the upstream and downstream products,when a country changes a certain product’s supply,it will inevitably not only impact its own international trade,but also will impact its upstream and downstream products trade.Thus,it is very significant to study the supply risk propagation mechanism in the international steel trade multi-layer network,so that it can make recommendations for governments to formulate international trade and industrial adjustment policies of steel industry from a more macro perspective.Applying complex network theory,it combined the input-output relationship between upstream and downstream products with international trade to construct the steel international trade multi-layer network.Based on the traditional infectious disease transmission model,this paper constructed supply risk propagation model in the international steel trade multi-layer network under the supply shortage and oversupply situation to study the supply risk propagation mechanism in the international steel trade multi-layer network.The main contribution and innovative results are as follows:(1)Analyzing the steel process to understand the production linkages between steel products.By collecting the import and export trade data of iron ore,pig iron,crude steel and rolled steel,and combing the input-output relation between these products,the application of complex network theory,with the countries as nodes,with the import and export relationship between countries as the inra-layer edges,and with the inputoutput relationship between the products of each country as the inter-layer edges,the international steel trade multi-layer network model(ISTM)was constructed.(2)On the basis of ISTM,according to traditional infectious disease transmission model,supply risk propagation model in the international steel trade multi-layer network(SRPIM)under the supply shortage situation and oversupply situation was constructed.With the import or export reducing of steel products as the supply shock,supply risk propagation model in the international steel trade multi-layer network(SRPISM)under the supply shortage and oversupply situation was constructed.The avalanche scale,supply shock,infection threshold and risk coefficient were designed.(3)Researching the supply risk propagation mechanism in the international steel trade multi-layer network in shortage scenario.As the supply shock increasing,countries affected by the supply shortage risk are gradually increasing.When occurred steel upstream product supply shortage risk,only a small number of countries as the original source will make the itself and its downstream products international trade network a large avalanche ratio.When the supply shock of upstream products is stable,the avalanche scale of itself and its downstream product declines as the infection threshold of potentially infected countries increases.The key propagation sources are Russia,Australia,Brazil and other countries.The supply shortage risk propagation route starts from one source,after pass through several intermediary countries,spreading to the entire iron ore,pig iron,crude steel and rolled steel international trade network,showing a multi-core radiation network structure.In the process of propagation,small associations are formed due to the close cooperation.(4)Researching the supply risk propagation mechanism in the international steel trade multi-layer network in oversupply scenario.The avalanche scale of international trade in upstream products increases with the increase of the impact coefficient.When supply shocks are constant,the avalanche scale of international trade in upstream products declines as the infection threshold of potentially infected countries in the downstream products network increases.Countries such as the United States,Poland,China,Mexico,Germany,France and Vietnam are key propagation sources for downstream products oversupply risk,which result in a large-scale avalanche of upstream products trade.The propagation path begins with a key source and spread to the entire international steel trade multi-layer network through 3 to 4 steps with small risk propagation communities.