| Critical minerals are essential raw materials that support high-quality economic development and play a crucial role in upgrading the global economic and industrial structure.General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized the need to correctly understand and grasp the prevention and resolution of major risks and actively respond to the impact and challenges brought about by external environmental changes.There is no doubt that preventing and resolving major risks has become the central task of national security work in the new era.The world is currently experiencing a period of sudden,frequent,and easily triggered risks.Various "black swan" events pose significant challenges to the world’s operating order.Outbreaks of public health emergencies,regional conflicts,great power competition,extreme weather,and other factors have directly or indirectly affected the supply of critical mineral resources and the healthy development of related industries.The profound changes in the international pattern and competitive environment,the increasing international status and discourse power of emerging economies,and the profound transformation of the global governance system mean that traditional security concepts are no longer suitable for new situations and new requirements.In the new era,China’s international trade security faces new problems and challenges.As the saying goes,"prevention is better than cure,and foresight is better than hindsight." China is currently in a critical period of great national rejuvenation,and needs a solid material foundation as a guarantee.International economic and trade exchanges are not only a positive force for promoting economic globalization,but also a stabilizer for maintaining the security of the global industrial and supply chains,and an important way to maintain sustainable resource supply.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to scientifically and clearly define the connotation and extension of international trade security in the new era,clarify external risks,and enhance China’s discourse power in international trade,in order to correctly understand and grasp the prevention and resolution of major risks and consolidate international trade security.Nowadays,human society has entered a new era with the overlap of the fourth industrial revolution and the sixth technological revolution,and the rapid development of strategic emerging industries has driven many new demands for mineral resources.Among them,as the zero-carbon economy wave is being promoted,lithium has become a key element in energy transformation and an important force in achieving the dual carbon target.Therefore,this research focuses on the realistic question of "What should be the focus of international trade security for China’s lithium products in the new era?And how to consolidate their international trade security?" A quantitative research framework covering the "industry chain-product" and "global-China" international trade security was constructed,and in-depth research was conducted on the trade network structure resilience,trade potential,international market influence,and international trade discourse power of lithium products.The international trade security of lithium products was analyzed from both external and internal perspectives,and targeted countermeasures and recommendations were proposed.The specific research objectives are as follows:The first is to further define the connotation and extension of international trade security for lithium products based on the connotation of the overall national security concept and the background of the new era.This refers to a state that has both a stable international trade relationship and strong international trade discourse power.It involves two perspectives of "security" : one is the stability and reliability of the global trade network from an external perspective,and the other is China’s market control and influence on products or industries from an internal perspective.To some extent,it reflects the connotation of "security",which means that there is no objective threat and no subjective fear.The second is to review the current global lithium industry chain development and discuss the challenges and prospects facing the development of China’s lithium industry chain.Firstly,the supply and demand status of the global lithium industry chain is analyzed from the perspective of the industry,followed by a review of the industrial development status of the main participating countries in the lithium industry chain.Based on the analysis of the current status of the industry and the global market,the challenges and opportunities facing the development of China’s lithium industry chain are analyzed,and the future development of China’s lithium industry chain is forecasted.It can be seen that lithium resources are mainly concentrated in countries such as Chile,Australia,Argentina,China,the United States,and Canada.The industrial layout of the main resource countries is mainly focused on the upstream resource end,with a late start in the strategic layout of the mid-to-downstream.With the market size of the midstream lithium processing products and the rapid rise in the global new energy vehicle industry,China has gradually achieved a "overtaking on a bend" strategy.However,the challenges facing China’s lithium industry chain are mainly concentrated in the lack of outstanding upstream resource endowment,weak pricing power in the midstream processing end,and insufficient core technology mastery in the downstream.In the future,China’s lithium industry chain development should focus on the reliability of the upstream resource end,bargaining power in the midstream product processing end,and technological advancements in the downstream application end.By consolidating and deepening China’s advantageous position through technological innovation and deepening cooperation,the lithium industry chain can provide broader space and stronger competitiveness for related industries to "go out" and "move forward."The third aspect is the analysis and evaluation of the global lithium industry chain trade network pattern evolution and network structure resilience,and the simulation of the vulnerability of the global lithium industry chain trade network under extreme situations such as trade interruptions,providing an external perspective on the security situation of the global lithium industry chain.Firstly,a comprehensive analysis of the global trade pattern of the lithium industry chain from 2000 to 2021 was conducted based on social network analysis.Secondly,the network structure resilience of each industry segment was quantitatively evaluated based on the node characteristics of the trade network pattern.Finally,the vulnerability of the lithium industry chain trade network structure was simulated after intentional attacks and trade interruption risks occurred.The study found that China’s position in the global trade network of the lithium industry chain is becoming increasingly prominent,and the global trade pattern is undergoing profound restructuring and transformation,with the upstream,midstream,and downstream of the lithium industry chain forming a global trade pattern dominated by China,a "bipolar pattern" with China and South Korea as the core,and a "unipolar pattern" with China as the core.The impact of global emergencies has accelerated the exit of some trading countries,reduced trade contacts between countries,increased trade barriers,and a few core countries have gained control over the majority of trade in the lithium industry chain.The upstream network of the lithium industry chain has a low resilience to risk,and the core nodes are vulnerable to shocks that can cause regional lockdowns and affect network structure resilience,while the downstream network of the lithium industry chain has higher network structure resilience and can adapt to systemic changes caused by shocks.Moreover,when the top 10% of key nodes globally gradually exit,the upstream network of the lithium industry chain will be at risk of paralysis,and the overall performance of the midstream and downstream trade networks will decline by an average of 35% and 23.5%,respectively.Therefore,intensifying the strategic layout of the upstream of the lithium industry chain and enhancing its resource-side resilience is the key to forging a "strong and resilient" industry chain,while deepening international cooperation to share risks is the way to maintain a stable external environment.The fourth aspect explored the influencing factors of China’s lithium industry chain in import and export trade,and quantitatively measured the trade potential,trade efficiency,and trade expandable space of China’s lithium industry chain,providing analytical support for clarifying the trade prospects of China’s lithium industry chain.Representative trading countries on the lithium industry chain,including the United States,Japan,Germany,France,India,and Australia,were selected as research objects,and empirical analysis was conducted on the export and import trade potential and influencing factors of the lithium industry chain from 2000 to 2021 using the traditional gravity model and the stochastic frontier gravity model.The study found that the characteristics of lithium resources and national strategic layout to some extent lead to a significant negative correlation between China’s economic development and import and export trade;good bilateral relations and efficient government governance will promote trade between two countries;risks can stimulate industrial transformation acceleration to some extent,and emerging industries in the transformation window period can have greater opportunities;in terms of trade potential and efficiency,China has a greater import trade development prospect with the United States and Japan on the lithium industry chain,and a greater export trade prospect with India,Germany,and France.In the future,if China can further deepen cooperation with countries with greater trade prospects,reduce trade barriers,it will be able to usher in greater trade growth.The fifth aspect analyzes the factors influencing the prices of Chinese lithium products and the product pricing power,and explores the mechanisms behind the "China demand" and "China supply" phenomena.The study selects the United States,Japan,France,India,and Australia as research objects,and uses the SMR expansion model to measure and analyze the international market influence of China’s lithium hydroxide products from 2000 to 2021.The study found that China’s lithium products have a significant "big country effect" in the French,Indian,and Australian markets,while China’s lithium products have limited product pricing power in the US and Japanese markets;China’s lithium product export trade exhibits a "China big market paradox",with existing market influence and its huge market share being mismatched with the potential market influence it should have;in addition,different levels of economic development in different countries have shown differentiated pulling and offsetting effects on lithium product prices in their respective markets;diversification of imports and exports helps to spread price volatility risks and improve product price bargaining space.The sixth aspect is to propose a two-dimensional international trade discourse power analysis framework based on trade potential and international market influence,and conduct a classification evaluation.The study found that China’s international trade discourse power is weak in the United States,Japan,Australia,and India,while it is relatively high in France.The research results confirm that external trade alliances have had a certain impact on China’s international trade discourse power,among which the construction of the four-party mechanism of the United States,Japan,India,and Australia has gradually highlighted the "de-China" phenomenon in the lithium resource field.Faced with the challenges brought by external alliances,China should carry out targeted economic diplomacy,promote the transformation of "Made in China" to "Created in China," improve product pricing capabilities,and gain the initiative in increasingly fierce international competition.Based on this,a "unilateral" and "progressive" path to enhance international trade discourse power is proposed.The innovations of this study include:(1)constructing a comprehensive research framework on the international trade security of lithium products,proposing a new connotation of international trade security in the new era,and achieving an organic combination of external and internal perspectives.By applying the proposed comprehensive research framework and combining the trade network structure resilience,trade potential,and international market influence,a detailed quantitative analysis of the international trade security of lithium products was conducted,providing a theoretical basis for further research on the international trade security of lithium products.(2)Clarifying the network structure resilience and risk resistance of the lithium industry chain.The trade network structure resilience of the lithium industry chain was evaluated to provide scientific judgment and decision support for identifying weak links in the industry chain and optimizing the industry chain layout.In addition,based on the complex reality of risk superimposition,the vulnerability of the trade network of the lithium industry chain was simulated under extreme situations such as trade interruption,providing scenario support to enhance the resilience of the industry chain and ensure resource supply security.(3)Proposing a two-dimensional analysis framework of international trade discourse power based on trade potential and international market influence,and clarifying the international trade discourse power from an interdisciplinary perspective and conducting classification evaluation,providing a scientific explanation for exploring the current status of China’s international trade discourse power of lithium products and a decision-making basis for deepening future bilateral or multilateral cooperation. |
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