| The positive effects of aerobic fermentation industry for the resource utilization of agricultural wastes and the positive effects of its products on the agricultural production environment has been globally proven.Promoting the construction of suitability evaluation system for the development of aerobic fermentation industry is a necessary for the construction of ecological civilization.Improving the development of agricultural waste aerobic fermentation industry is a concrete embodiment of China’s green development technology and suitability system construction in the field of ecological civilization construction,which is of great and far-reaching significance.By analyzing the data of aerobic fermentation industry in 24 provinces,this article established a multi-dimensional,multi-level and multi-criterion research system.DEMATEL was used to study the internal relations among the influencing factors in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain,and the key factors of the system were identified.On this basis,SER theoretical framework,regional suitability,three-stage DEA and Monte Carlo were used to develop a comprehensive evaluation model with multi-attribute and multi-objective.By embedding the hierarchical evaluation method and entropy method into the comprehensive evaluation model,the optimized integrated output of the evaluation results can be achieved on the balance between the absolute performance degree of suitability and the relative development.Taking Shanxi Province as an example,the model is applied.The research conclusions are as follows:1.Based on the data analysis of 346 aerobic fermentation enterprises in 24 provinces of China,the industry started in a relatively early time（1985）,and developed slowly before 2010（1.41%growth rate）,but then grew rapidly（9.63%growth rate）,but the scale of production was relatively small（78.90%of which were less than 50 000 t）;there are many kinds of raw materials can be used in the industry,but the price is high,with an average of 363 Chinese yuan/ton;the technology of stacking was relatively mature but the tank process needs to be improved,and the technology of reactor fermentation is at a starting stage.2.Based on the development status of aerobic fermentation industry in China,the influencing factors for industrial development were systematically analyzed from four essential aspects which are resource conditions,basic characteristics,technical characteristics and comprehensive benefits.The causal relationship between 15 measurement indexes was quantitatively analyzed by using DEMATEL model.It was found that raw material availability,environmental risk and policy orientation were the most important factors affecting the development of aerobic fermentation industry.The second is production technology.Therefore,the theoretical framework of SER theory was constructed,and on this basis,the suitability comprehensive evaluation model of aerobic fermentation industry development was designed from three dimensions:regional suitability of raw materials,environmental risk and effectiveness of input-output efficiency.3.The regional suitability evaluation of agricultural waste:the national agricultural waste is able to produce 54.6113 million tons of aerobic fermentation products,and the demand of crops is 463.5191million tons.According to the supply surplus ratio（-0.74-1.96）,the whole country can be divided into moderate development area,suitable development area,encouraged development area and development limited area.Shanxi Province is located in the suitable development area.According to the supply surplus（-0.94-4.90）,Shanxi Province is divided into potential growth area（Changzhi）,encouraged development area（Yangquan and Xinzhou）,suitable development area（Linfen,Jincheng,Jinzhong,Shuozhou and Datong）and restricted development area according to the supply surplus（-0.94-4.90）Exhibition area（Yuncheng,Luliang and Taiyuan）.4.Environmental risk assessment of aerobic fermentation industry has been conducted:the concentration range of Zn,Cu,Cr,Pb,Ni,as and Cd in aerobic fermentation products in Shanxi Province is 50.31-1595.42,5.38-351.24,5.24-151.15,3.22-151.09,3.54-49.35,1.54-23.96 and 0.04-5.25 mg kg-1,respectively.Monte Carlo model simulates the cumulative risk of continuous application of the product in soil.The period of no more than the standard maximum allowable concentration is 64-350 years.Zn,Cu and CD contribute the most to the risk.It is suggested that the threshold value of Zn and Cu should be added to the relevant standards.There is no non carcinogenic risk（HI<1.0）,but potential carcinogenic risk(TCR>10-4)is generated when the product enters the soil,which is mainly caused by as and Cr.5.Using Three-stage DEA model to analyze the effectiveness of input-output efficiency of aerobic fermentation industry in Shanxi Province:enterprises should give priority to improving scale efficiency,followed by pure technical efficiency.Aerobic fermentation industry has obtained a better business environment driven by policies.External environmental factors and management inefficiency（γapproaching 1）have significant effects on the production efficiency of aerobic fermentation of agricultural wastes.After excluding external environmental factors,the comprehensive efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency decreased from 0.668,0.874 and 0.759 to 0.606,0.829 and 0.690,respectively.In the first stage,the proportion of aerobic fermentation enterprises in Shanxi Province was36.36%,18.18%,36.36%and 9.09%respectively in the first stage,and 18.18%,27.27%,9.09%and36.36%in the third stage.6.According to the grading evaluation and entropy,the order of suitability for the development of aerobic fermentation industry in Shanxi is Jinzhong>Taiyuan>Changzhi>Shuozhou>Datong>Xinzhou>Linfen>Yuncheng>Jincheng>Yangquan>Luliang.According to the key problems faced by each region,functional zoning is carried out,including single function deficient area（Jinzhong,Xinzhou,Shuozhou and Datong）,dual function insufficient area（Linfen,Jincheng,Yangquan and Changzhi）and multiple function insufficient area（Yuncheng,Luliang and Taiyuan）.The optimization strategy of"government guidance and support,enterprise market operation,and people’s conscious participation"is put forward.Shanxi should primitively focus on the environmental risk and the effectiveness of input-output efficiency,followed by the regional suitability of raw materials. |
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