| In the context of global climate change,carbon market emission reduction and exchange increase have become a key way for countries around the world to deal with climate change.As an important trading interest in the carbon market,with the increase of the supply capacity of forest carbon sink(FCS)in China,the problem of insufficient demand for FCS in the carbon market is prominent,with emphasis on the realistic predicament of low emission reduction,small market share and weak demand of FCS.Under the new situation of the launch of the national carbon market,the carbon emission control enterprises(CECE)have become an important demander of FCS in the carbon market.National Development and Reform Commission and the other public adminastration departments have lay down the new policy,"Action Plan for the Establishment of Market-oriented and pluralistic Ecological Protection compensation Mechanism" in 2018.According to the document,We will improve the carbon offsetting mechanism based on voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction transactions,give priority to FCS into the national carbon market,and guide CECE to give priority to purchasing FCS.So,Whether it is feasible for CECE to choose FCS,and whether the demand willing of the CECE is strong?How to form effective demand,what factors affect it,and what is the deep-seated mechanism of "demand is not strong"?How to effectively drive the CECE to purchase FCS as a matter of priority?However,the research on FCS’s demand and its related mechanism is still a new research field in Chinese academic circles,especially lacking dynamic and quantitative research based on economic theory and interdisciplinary research paradigm,considering the dynamic and quantitative research of carbon market and its institutional environment.Therefore,research on the demand mechanism and driving mechanism of FCS in CECE,not only conducive to promoting the marketization of FCS and the effective implementation of diversified ecological compensation mechanism,but also indirectly alleviates the pressure of emission reduction in CECE,enriches the theoretical system of resource economics,and promotes the deep cross-over research of forestry economic management,enterprise management and climate change economics,which has certain academic value and decision reference value.The research aims at the leading scientific problems of FCS demand of CECE under the environment of carbon market system,and adopts the research method of combining normative analysis with empirical analysis.According to the logical thinking of "transcendental problem-subjective willing-demand mechanism-driving mechanism-exploring the solution".First of all,this paper analyzes the current situation of FCS’s trading and feasibility of FCS offset emission reduction in CECE,and demonstrates the scientific and reasonable nature of this study.This paper combs the relevant research results,analyzes the scientific connotation of forest carbon and FCS,introduces the process and requirements of FCS into the carbon market,and sets up basic theory analysis framework of this topic.This paper analyzes the present situation of FCS trading by using the statistical data,and analyzes the feasibility of offsetting emission reduction by FCS in CECE.It is concluded that the maturity of FCS transaction in compliance market is higher than that voluntary market,and it is being passed from voluntary market to compliance market.During the transition period,FCS is a deeper scientific conclusion of economic,social and ecological Pareto improvement.Secondly,based on the theoretical framework of planning behavior,this paper analyzes the theoretical basis and deep logical relationship of the three dimensions of FCS demand willingness in CECE,such as behavior attitude,subjective norm and perceptual behavior control,constructs the theoretical model of FCS demand willingness in CECE,and empirically tests vital factors of the theoretical model of FCS demand willingness in CECE by using 396 sample data and Heckman two-stage model.Thirdly,according to the research mode of complex network theory,this paper puts forward the three-dimensional theoretical framework of "institutional environment-project advantage-subjective willing" on the demand mechanism of FCS in CECE,constructs explanatory structure model of FCS demand mechanism in CECE,and divides the element level of FCS demand mechanism into demand,cost comparison,main power,ecological advantage,external incentive,proportion setting,market condition and system construction.The mechanism of FCS’s demand in market-led,emission reduction pressure-led and partner-driven enterprises is formed.Bayesian network model is used to simulate the uncertainty probability of the explanation structure model,element level and action path of FCS demand mechanism in CECE.Finally,from the perspective of emission reduction and institutional innovation subject behavior of CECE,the game relationship and stable equilibrium strategy of two agents in the process of demand driving of FCS in CECE are analyzed by using evolutionary game model.With the Matlab software,it is found that the main game between CECE and public management departments is a dynamic evolution process.The strategy will be affected by the cost and benefit of emission reduction ways,cost of incentive strategy and policy support of public administration.Combined with the conclusion of game simulation,this paper puts forward the construction of interest balance mechanism,information communication mechanism,incentive mechanism and constraint mechanism of FCS demand-driven mechanism in enterprises.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward specific and targeted driving suggestions from the CECE and institutional construction. |
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