| Natural disasters and wars are the dominant events concerning the relationship between human beings and the environment.In historical periods,large scale of people died because of frequent occurrences of natural disasters and wars.It was described as"death toll amounting to more than ten thousand","human cannibalism","dead people lying on top of each other","larg’e scale of death caused by starvation" in Chinese ancient documents,and the events were dreadful to our mind.It is of great significance to the study of spatial and temporal patterns of death events of large scale of people in historical periods by grasping the regularity of global changes and human activities.On the basis of "Database of Chinese Classic Ancient Books" and "China Local Gazetteers Database" from Beijing Erudition Digital Technology Research Center,the occurring frequency of the large scale of death events that typical descriptions characterization in Chinese ancient documents is reorganized.The temporal and spatial distribution,causeanalysis and social influence are analyzed by using methods of linear trend,least squares,wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test and Arcgis spatial analysis.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Historically China had high frequency of "death toll amounting to more than ten thousand" events.The "death toll amounting to more than ten thousand" events caused by natural disasters have occurred in 237 years and 336 provinces in Chinese ancient books during 770BC-1911AD,and the main natural disasters were flood disaster,epidemic disaster,tide disaster,hunger disaster,drought disaster and earthquake disaster.Wei,Jin,Northern and Southern dynasties,Sui dynasty were the first active period,and Ming and Qing dynasties were the second active period which have comprised 62.4%of event years.Autumn and summer were the most disaster-prone seasons.July,June and May were the most disaster-prone months.The 19th century was the most disaster-prone centuries.Occurring frequency and occurring province on the decade intervals showed significant upward flucturating volatility trend and the changes have experienced four stages-those of the lowest frequency,slow increase,stable frequency and rapid increase.The maximum frequency appeared in the years from 1540 to 1549,1580 to 1589,1830 to 1839,and 1860 to 1869,with the increased remarkably after 1820;at the same time,the maximum province appeared in the years from 1450 to 1459 and from 1640 to 1649.Wavelet analysis showed that there were three event evolution cycles of 350a,50a and 100a from 1030 to 1911.Characteristics of regional distribution were distinct,with the maximum frequencies in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Henan provinces.There was a shifting trend from north to south for the center areas,but the south more.It was more frequent in the provinces where capitals were located.The middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was the one high-frequency centers,and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River,especially in Henan,was the other high-frequency centers.Different provinces had respective structure of disasters.Based on the description of the natural disasters losses,the temporal pattern of losses was not the same as that of frequency.The "death toll amounting to more than ten thousand" events caused by wars have occurred in 510 years and 701 provinces in Chinese ancient books during 770BC-1911AD.The Wei,Jin,Northern and Southern dynasties,Sui and Tang dynasties,and Five dynasties formed a long active period especially in the 4th century.Occurring frequency and occurring province on the decade intervals showed upward flucturating trend,and the changes have experienced four stages of the lowest frequency,rapid increase,relatively low frequency and stable increase.The maximum frequency appeared in the years from 880 to 889,1640 to 1649,and 1860 to 1869,with remarkably increased after 420 and 1000;whereas the maximum province appeared in the years from 1860 to 1869.Wavelet analysis showed that there were three war evolution cycles of 680a,110a and 320a.The characteristics of spatial distribution were distinct,with more frequencies in the north than in the south,and more in the east than in the west.The geographical and the cores of each dynasty were different.It was more frequent in the capitals,and the changes of capital location influenced the change of cores.The middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River,especially in Henan,Shaanxi,Hebei and Shanxi provinces,were the high-frequency occurrence centers.Based on the description of the war losses,the losses were not the same in different dynasties.(2)"Human cannibalism" was a mark event that the grains utmost lacked and large proporation of people died.In historical periods,"Human cannibalism" events occurred in 429 years and 884 provinces in Chinese ancient books during 770BC-1911AD,and the main disasters were drought disaster,hunger disaster,flood disaster and war.The Eastern Han,Wei,Jin dynasties were the first active period,and Ming and Qing dynasties were the second active period which have comprised 58.8%of event years.The spring had a higher frequency than other seasons and the 16th century had higher frequency than other centuries.Occurring frequency and occurring province on the decade intervals showed upward flucturating trend and the frequency changes experienced four stages,i.e.those of stability,stable increase,slow increase and rapid increase.The maximum frequency appeared in the years from 1630 to 1649,with a remarkable increase after 1520.The maximum province appeared in the years from 1640 to 1649.Wavelet analysis showed that there were three event evolution cycles of 300a,140a and 40a from 1190 to 1911.The spatial distribution varied distinctly and Henan,Shandong,Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces were most frequently,with more frequencies in the capital cities.There was a shifting trend of events cores from north to south,but the north more.The middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River were the two high-frequency centers.(3)Historically China has high frequencies of "dead people lying on top of each other"and "large scale of death caused by starvation" events which occurred in 518 years and 1170 provinces in Chinese ancient books during 770BC-1911AD.The main disasters were hunger disaster,drought disaster,epidemic disaster,flood disaster and war.The Sui,Tang dynasties were the first low active period,and Ming and Qing dynasties were the second active period which had comprised 71%of event years.The 17th century was the most disaster-prone centuries.Summer was the most prone season that caused by natural disasters.Change in occurring frequency and occurring province on the decade intervals showed the very significant upward volatility rising trend and the frequency experienced three stages of stable increase,slow increase and rapid increase.The maximum frequency appeared in the years from 1530 to 1539,1640 to 1649 and 1830 to 1869,with the increased remarkably after 1440;at the same time,the maximum province appeared in the years from 1640 to 1649.Wavelet analysis showed that the event evolution cycles were 350a,200a,120a and 30a from 1050 to 1911.The spatial distribution varied distinctly,with higher frequencies in the south and in the east.Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces had the highest frequencies.The middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River were the two high-frequency centers.The process of regional development had significant impact on the changes of geographical distribution,and the distribution area was radiated gradually from the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River,the cores showing a center-shifting trend from north to south,but the south more.(4)Natural factors and social factors were the two mainly reasons for the large scale of death events.In the natural factors,the climate change and the extreme climate events that triggered by climate change were significantly.The large scale of death events occurred more in the cold period and in the extreme drought period because of the cold/warm and dry/wet changes of climate.In addition,the difference of geological condition was the main reason that the large scale of death events caused by the earthquake.The social factors included the war,the scale of population,the vulnerability degree of social,the ecological environment,et al.The large scale of death events occurred in the more frequency,more scale and nationwide of war.With the continuous increased in the size of population,there had been a significantly growth of the large scale of death events,at the same time the frequently-occurring stage of the events had often caused a sharp decline in the population.It is showed that there was a close relationship between the large scale of death events and the vulnerability degree of social,including the late dynastic,social turbulences,alternation of dynasties and social disruption.Human destruction of the ecological environment had led to a marked increase in large scale of death events in the ecological fragile region.Regional differences that included the geographical position,population density and economic development level were the main reasons for the uneven distribution in spatial of the large scale of death events.(5)Large scale of death had greatly restricted socio-economic development.Large scale of death events effected population development,leading to significant population reduction,frequent migration,abnormally low life quality and low population quality.Large scale of death events had a significant impact on the population migration towards south during Wei,Jin,Northern and Southern dynasties and Southern Song dynasty.Large scale of death events damaged to small-scale peasant economy,leading to significant labor reduction,grain reduction,land waste,food price fluctuations.The occurrence of large scale of death events disturbed normal social order,causing riots and promoting the uprising of peasants.Large scale of death events had effected the development of the city,leading to a sharp drop in the urban population and the destruction of municipal construction. |
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