On Social Early Warning

The biggest risk is not the risk itself,but without the awareness and preparation for it.Therefore,the advance understanding of various social risks that may occur in the process of social existence and development through the social early warning constitutes a major realistic issue for self-consciousness in current human society.The Social warning is essentially a special social cognitive activities,a reflective understanding of the existence and development of human society,and a nature activity of humanity for pursuing the unity of regularity and purpose at a higher level.There are two possibilities of consistency and conflict between the expectation and result in the practice of human society,and it is the latter possibility that constitutes the basis of the ontology of social risk.The Social early warning is the advance awareness of this social risk through a series of cognitive links of identification,analysis,prediction,monitoring,evaluation and feedback.The particularity of this cognitive activity is expressed for the forward-looking of time,the criticality of value orientation,the complexity of cognitive process,and the objectivity of the outcomes.The fundamental function of this cognitive activity is to delineate the boundary of social existence and development,and evaluates and predicts the possibility and extent of approaching this boundary,and feeds back to the society in the form of warnings to better regulate and guide the healthy development of society.This function includes the three basic levels of understanding and evaluation of social phenomena,norm and guidance of social practice,and optimization and development of social systems.The social early warning activities in different eras reflect the different production methods,world views,cognitive abilities,ways of thinking of people from the perspective of the historical evolution of social early warning activities.and it is these factors that shaped the different unique historical style of the social early warning.In the primitive society period it depends more on people’s perceptual imagination ability,forming a kind of spiritual warning method with strong mystery,including through myths and legends,divination,and religious taboos;the social early warning activities in the agricultural society mainly depend on people’s intuitive experience,forming a "natural sensory" of social warning through natural experience,and the "historical waning" through social historical experiences;the social early warning activities in the industrial society period entered the stage of scientific development,accompanied by the rational awakening to form a rational and speculative social early warning,along with the rise of the natural sciences formed an empirical scientific social warning;The social early warning activities mainly relies on modern information technology to form a digital social early warning in the information society,which is used computer simulation models and big data processing technologies in social warning.The social early warning system is a dynamic cognitive activity system that the subject acts on the object through using of specific methods and various materials and theoretical intermediary tools from the perspective of the internal structure.The subject of social early warning is the people who have the reality of survival and development in a certain historical development period and social relations,and the social organizations at different levels formed by people in social practice activities;The object of social early warning is the various social risks that may occur in the process of social existence and development;the intermediary of social early warning is a variety of cognitive tools and means used by subject to identify,assess,monitor and alert on objects.The premise of the reality of social early warning activities is neither an "entity" as the highest survivor nor a certain highest category within the scope of consciousness,but a realistic perceptual practice.As a complex social awareness activity,it is a process of gradual development of a variety of interrelated cognitive links,including the discovery and identification of various warning signs,the identification and determination of specific warning contents,reflection and exploration of deep warning reasons,and planning defining and identifying specific warning limitation,predicting and monitoring dynamic warning situation,evaluating and classifying different warning levels,feedback and issuing the different alarms,determining and generating the pre-control plans.During the process of these cognitive links,they face many problems and challenges,including the limitation of the social early warning subject and the complexity of the social early warning object;the interactive reflective problem between the subject and object;and the trust issues faced by socialization of warning information.Both the improvement of the original methods and the exploration of new methods are needed for surpassing the difficulties in the process of social early warning and propelling the social early warning developing scientifically.However,either way should follow the certain principle of methodology,it should at least includes the principle of combining Marxist philosophical methodology with modern scientific methodology;the principle of combining qualitative research,quantitative research and timed research;the principle of combining factual research,value research and practical research.It is an important part of interacting satisfactorily between theory and practice for using the knowledge from the social early warning researching to reflect the current unique situation of Chinese social early warning.Promoting the social early warning research in the process of interaction between theory and practice,and providing the directions for practice from presenting the complexity and particularity of current Chinese social risks,revealing its historical progress and real problems,and exploring its countermeasures and plans for future development.